Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Metizport, while the market favors Brute (100%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Brute - Map 1 Winner

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Metizport (67%) · Metizport at 0.1¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 26

Metizport<1¢Brute>99¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Metizport

Consensus Traders

Metizport 67%

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$130.19

Smart Money Entry

55.1¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidMetizport at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Metizport

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Brute 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Metizport0%

Brute100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Metizport4 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares9,023

Combined PnL-$163.59

Brute2 traders

Total Value$88.2

Total Shares136

Combined PnL+$33.41

Metizport — 67%Brute — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JohnLKellyJrCTR	Metizportavg 55.7¢	$4.9K	$4.8K	-$146.71	53% 1073-952 (2025)
SH shiifoo<$100	Bruteavg 52.6¢	$48.05	$48.5	+$22.95	60% 3020-2030 (5050)
CC ccllar<$100	Bruteavg 33.9¢	$29.24	$39.7	+$10.46	46% 377-438 (815)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Metizportavg 68¢	$6.8	$5.4	-$1.4	59% 7417-5133 (12550)
TH thatsabing0CTR<$100	Metizportavg 57¢	$3.9	$3.69	-$0.21	93% 2801-219 (3020)
TO TommyLeePeecaCTR<$100	Metizportavg 12.2¢	$15.34	$0.06	-$15.27	54% 956-807 (1763)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

Metizport

Invested

$4,942.12

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$146.71

Record

53%

1073-952 (2025)

shiifoo<$100

Brute

Invested

$48.05

Value

$48.5

PnL

+$22.95

Record

60%

3020-2030 (5050)

ccllar<$100

Brute

Invested

$29.24

Value

$39.7

PnL

+$10.46

Record

46%

377-438 (815)

RLWGCTR<$100

Metizport

Invested

$6.8

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$1.4

Record

59%

7417-5133 (12550)

thatsabing0CTR<$100

Metizport

Invested

$3.9

Value

$3.69

PnL

-$0.21

Record

93%

2801-219 (3020)

TommyLeePeecaCTR<$100

Metizport

Invested

$15.34

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$15.27

Record

54%

956-807 (1763)

Research grade

AvoidMetizport at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

Metizport

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Brute 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Metizport wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.