Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Metizport, while the market favors Brute (64%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Brute (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Metizport (60%) · Metizport at 37¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Metizport
5
Metizport 60%
1 arb excluded
$8.0K
$350.13
61.6¢ → 36.5¢
-41% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralMetizport at 37%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Brute 64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WI WiretransferxyzCTR | Metizportavg 61.6¢ | $8.8K | $5.8K | +$345.51 | 53% 699-608 (1307) |
RA RayayaCTR | Metizportavg 61.6¢ | $1.5K | $997.57 | +$60 | 60% 1088-734 (1822) |
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F | Bruteavg 37.7¢ | $2.1K | $736.72 | -$68.61 | 54% 114-97 (211) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Bruteavg 59.6¢ | $216.61 | $230.22 | +$13.61 | 53% 13162-11646 (24808) |
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100 | Metizportavg 47.2¢ | $175.66 | $170.6 | -$5.06 | 54% 956-807 (1763) |
| └ Metizport leg | Metizportavg 47.2¢ | $140.6 | $113.13 | -$27.47 | |
| └ Brute leg | Bruteavg 37.8¢ | $35.06 | $57.47 | +$22.41 | |
MA manoamanoCTR<$100 | Metizportavg 66¢ | $49.18 | $48.81 | -$0.37 | 51% 417-405 (822) |
Invested
$8,849.74
Value
$5.8K
PnL
+$345.51
Record
53%
699-608 (1307)
Invested
$1,523
Value
$997.57
PnL
+$60
Record
60%
1088-734 (1822)
Invested
$2,135.42
Value
$736.72
PnL
-$68.61
Record
54%
114-97 (211)
Invested
$216.61
Value
$230.22
PnL
+$13.61
Record
53%
13162-11646 (24808)
Invested
$175.66
Value
$170.6
PnL
-$5.06
Record
54%
956-807 (1763)
Both legs:
Invested
$49.18
Value
$48.81
PnL
-$0.37
Record
51%
417-405 (822)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.