Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ (63%) · MOUZ at 76¢ · $13K held · ends Oct 25

MOUZ76¢9z24¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MOUZ

Consensus Traders

MOUZ 63%

Total Value

$12.9K

Combined PnL

-$49.13

Smart Money Entry

76¢ → 75.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 76%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

MOUZ76%

9z25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MOUZ5 traders

Total Value$11.7K

Total Shares15,493

Combined PnL-$48.08

9z3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares5,025

Combined PnL-$1.05

MOUZ — 63%9z — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	MOUZavg 76¢	$7.8K	$7.7K	-$51.17	53% 100-87 (187)
RA Rayaya	MOUZavg 76¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$0	59% 982-674 (1656)
BA BabooouCTR	9zavg 24¢	$960	$960	+$0	52% 188-171 (359)
OM omnibus-076daa	MOUZavg 76¢	$481.73	$481.73	+$0	59% 13855-9624 (23479)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	MOUZavg 75¢	$464.25	$470.44	+$3.1	69% 4251-1917 (6168)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	9zavg 25¢	$222.37	$217.92	-$4.45	66% 2839-1491 (4330)
HU humbleboyCTR<$100	9zavg 22¢	$29.92	$33.32	+$3.4	54% 399-334 (733)
DS dsasdaas<$100	MOUZavg 76¢	$3.8	$3.8	+$0	63% 270-156 (426)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

MOUZ

Invested

$7,778.43

Value

$7.7K

PnL

-$51.17

Record

53%

100-87 (187)

Rayaya

MOUZ

Invested

$3,040

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

982-674 (1656)

BabooouCTR

Invested

$960

Value

$960

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

188-171 (359)

omnibus-076daa

MOUZ

Invested

$481.73

Value

$481.73

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

13855-9624 (23479)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

MOUZ

Invested

$464.25

Value

$470.44

PnL

+$3.1

Record

69%

4251-1917 (6168)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Invested

$222.37

Value

$217.92

PnL

-$4.45

Record

66%

2839-1491 (4330)

humbleboyCTR<$100

Invested

$29.92

Value

$33.32

PnL

+$3.4

Record

54%

399-334 (733)

dsasdaas<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.8

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

270-156 (426)

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 76%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MOUZ wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.