Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Eternal Fire, while the market favors MIBR (65%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Eternal Fire (38%) · Eternal Fire at 36¢ · $12K held · ends Oct 28

MIBR65¢Eternal Fire35¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Eternal Fire

Consensus Traders

Eternal Fire 38%

Total Value

$11.7K

Combined PnL

$247.37

Smart Money Entry

36.8¢ → 35.5¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralEternal Fire at 36%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eternal Fire

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors MIBR 65%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

MIBR65%

Eternal Fire36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Eternal Fire3 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares18,180

Combined PnL+$311.35

MIBR5 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares7,601

Combined PnL-$63.99

Eternal Fire — 38%MIBR — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123CTR	Eternal Fireavg 37¢	$4.6K	$4.7K	+$184.55	52% 1506-1390 (2896)
WI Wiretransferxyz	MIBRavg 62.7¢	$3.9K	$3.8K	-$71.53	53% 717-627 (1344)
HU humbleboyCTR	Eternal Fireavg 36.3¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$126.47	54% 485-413 (898)
hasobidale	MIBRavg 67¢	$703.5	$703.5	+$0	67% 200-100 (300)
OM omnibus-076daa	MIBRavg 62¢	$111.69	$120.7	+$9.01	49% 18089-18501 (36590)
MA manoamano<$100	MIBRavg 65.2¢	$98.36	$97.32	-$1.04	51% 418-407 (825)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100	Eternal Fireavg 34¢	$23.03	$23.37	+$0.34	47% 2315-2583 (4898)
VeryLucky888	MIBRavg 63¢	$820	$1.65	-$0.42	58% 39436-28511 (67947)

vibing123CTR

Eternal Fire

Invested

$4,552.2

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$184.55

Record

52%

1506-1390 (2896)

Wiretransferxyz

MIBR

Invested

$3,895.34

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$71.53

Record

53%

717-627 (1344)

humbleboyCTR

Eternal Fire

Invested

$2,109.89

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$126.47

Record

54%

485-413 (898)

hasobidale

MIBR

Invested

$703.5

Value

$703.5

PnL

+$0

Record

67%

200-100 (300)

omnibus-076daa

MIBR

Invested

$111.69

Value

$120.7

PnL

+$9.01

Record

49%

18089-18501 (36590)

manoamano<$100

MIBR

Invested

$98.36

Value

$97.32

PnL

-$1.04

Record

51%

418-407 (825)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$23.03

Value

$23.37

PnL

+$0.34

Record

47%

2315-2583 (4898)

VeryLucky888

MIBR

Invested

$820

Value

$1.65

PnL

-$0.42

Record

58%

39436-28511 (67947)

Research grade

NeutralEternal Fire at 36%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Eternal Fire

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors MIBR 65%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eternal Fire wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.