Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold MOUZ, while the market favors TheMongolz (54%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5)

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ (29%) · MOUZ at 47¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 26

MOUZ47¢TheMongolz53¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MOUZ

Consensus Traders

MOUZ 29%

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

$11.15

Smart Money Entry

46.8¢ → 46.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 47%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors TheMongolz 54%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

MOUZ47%

TheMongolz54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MOUZ2 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares8,597

Combined PnL-$21.27

TheMongolz5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares4,444

Combined PnL+$32.42

MOUZ — 29%TheMongolz — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
relativesignificanceCTR	MOUZavg 46.8¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	-$24.36	59% 71-50 (121)
BA Babooou	TheMongolzavg 53¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$13.28	52% 193-176 (369)
WI Wiretransferxyz	TheMongolzavg 52¢	$577.81	$594.48	+$16.67	54% 671-573 (1244)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	MOUZavg 46¢	$283.75	$286.84	+$3.08	53% 106-93 (199)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	TheMongolzavg 53¢	$265	$267.5	+$2.5	54% 5135-4443 (9578)
MA manoamano<$100	TheMongolzavg 54¢	$48.89	$48.44	-$0.45	51% 412-395 (807)
forsenxd<$100	TheMongolzavg 53¢	$45.16	$45.59	+$0.43	54% 1003-869 (1872)

relativesignificanceCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$3,734.94

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$24.36

Record

59%

71-50 (121)

Babooou

TheMongolz

Invested

$1,408.05

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$13.28

Record

52%

193-176 (369)

Wiretransferxyz

TheMongolz

Invested

$577.81

Value

$594.48

PnL

+$16.67

Record

54%

671-573 (1244)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$283.75

Value

$286.84

PnL

+$3.08

Record

53%

106-93 (199)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

TheMongolz

Invested

$265

Value

$267.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

54%

5135-4443 (9578)

manoamano<$100

TheMongolz

Invested

$48.89

Value

$48.44

PnL

-$0.45

Record

51%

412-395 (807)

forsenxd<$100

TheMongolz

Invested

$45.16

Value

$45.59

PnL

+$0.43

Record

54%

1003-869 (1872)

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 47%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors TheMongolz 54%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MOUZ wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.