Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner

10 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ (50%) · MOUZ at 100¢ · $63K held · ends Oct 26

TheMongolz<1¢MOUZ>99¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MOUZ

Consensus Traders

MOUZ 50%

Total Value

$63.3K

Combined PnL

$-2.8K

Smart Money Entry

68.7¢ → 100¢

+45% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

10 of 20 top traders (50%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

TheMongolz0%

MOUZ100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MOUZ10 traders

Total Value$54.3K

Total Shares69,090

Combined PnL$-1.9K

TheMongolz10 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares24,085

Combined PnL-$864.56

MOUZ — 50%TheMongolz — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	MOUZavg 73.6¢	$26.5K	$23.6K	$-3.0K	54% 50820-42775 (93595)
LL lllllllIlll	MOUZavg 64.8¢	$18.3K	$17.7K	-$651.63	56% 250-198 (448)
JohnLKellyJr	MOUZavg 68.2¢	$7.4K	$7.3K	-$185.66	53% 1031-910 (1941)
cruzNBACTR	TheMongolzavg 43.6¢	$3.8K	$3.7K	-$95.84	41% 350-499 (849)
RE redvinny	MOUZavg 77.4¢	$18.1K	$3.6K	+$1.4K	75% 1391-464 (1855)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR	TheMongolzavg 40.2¢	$2.5K	$1.9K	-$609.93	51% 316-309 (625)
DE delacsynzy1	MOUZavg 56¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$169.64	50% 404-397 (801)
puntobigbossCTR	TheMongolzavg 37¢	$925	$937.5	+$12.5	68% 63-30 (93)
JO jole24CTR	TheMongolzavg 35¢	$874.99	$887.49	+$12.5	45% 986-1229 (2215)
FA facaigegeCTR	TheMongolzavg 44¢	$880	$880	+$0	49% 363-381 (744)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	MOUZavg 64.1¢	$560.89	$563.98	+$3.09	53% 106-93 (199)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	TheMongolzavg 46¢	$400	$265.22	-$134.78	53% 2599-2307 (4906)
TO TommyLeePeeca	MOUZavg 64¢	$7.5K	$258.94	+$451.63	54% 924-774 (1698)
CH chillhouse123	MOUZavg 68.3¢	$621.08	$200.13	-$113.36	53% 3355-3006 (6361)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	TheMongolzavg 39.5¢	$250.43	$193.25	-$57.18	49% 17082-17463 (34545)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	TheMongolzavg 34¢	$169.32	$176.79	+$7.47	47% 2220-2471 (4691)
RL RLWG<$100	MOUZavg 64.5¢	$35.5	$33.25	+$1.4	57% 6200-4745 (10945)
poshposhCTR<$100	TheMongolzavg 32¢	$15.74	$16.48	+$0.74	44% 2201-2835 (5036)
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569<$100	MOUZavg 90¢	$5.4	$5.43	+$0.03	46% 824-978 (1802)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100	TheMongolzavg 36¢	$1.8	$1.78	-$0.03	54% 5135-4443 (9578)

RN1

MOUZ

Invested

$26,547.63

Value

$23.6K

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

54%

50820-42775 (93595)

lllllllIlll

MOUZ

Invested

$18,329.74

Value

$17.7K

PnL

-$651.63

Record

56%

250-198 (448)

JohnLKellyJr

MOUZ

Invested

$7,448.76

Value

$7.3K

PnL

-$185.66

Record

53%

1031-910 (1941)

cruzNBACTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$3,819.12

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$95.84

Record

41%

350-499 (849)

redvinny

MOUZ

Invested

$18,063.05

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

75%

1391-464 (1855)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$2,522.07

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$609.93

Record

51%

316-309 (625)

delacsynzy1

MOUZ

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$169.64

Record

50%

404-397 (801)

puntobigbossCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$925

Value

$937.5

PnL

+$12.5

Record

68%

63-30 (93)

jole24CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$874.99

Value

$887.49

PnL

+$12.5

Record

45%

986-1229 (2215)

facaigegeCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$880

Value

$880

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

363-381 (744)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

MOUZ

Invested

$560.89

Value

$563.98

PnL

+$3.09

Record

53%

106-93 (199)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$400

Value

$265.22

PnL

-$134.78

Record

53%

2599-2307 (4906)

TommyLeePeeca

MOUZ

Invested

$7,474.73

Value

$258.94

PnL

+$451.63

Record

54%

924-774 (1698)

chillhouse123

MOUZ

Invested

$621.08

Value

$200.13

PnL

-$113.36

Record

53%

3355-3006 (6361)

omnibus-076daaCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$250.43

Value

$193.25

PnL

-$57.18

Record

49%

17082-17463 (34545)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$169.32

Value

$176.79

PnL

+$7.47

Record

47%

2220-2471 (4691)

RLWG<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$35.5

Value

$33.25

PnL

+$1.4

Record

57%

6200-4745 (10945)

poshposhCTR<$100

TheMongolz

Invested

$15.74

Value

$16.48

PnL

+$0.74

Record

44%

2201-2835 (5036)

0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$5.4

Value

$5.43

PnL

+$0.03

Record

46%

824-978 (1802)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100

TheMongolz

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.78

PnL

-$0.03

Record

54%

5135-4443 (9578)

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

10 of 20 top traders (50%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MOUZ wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.