Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner

11 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ (50%) · MOUZ at 100¢ · $78K held · ends Oct 26

TheMongolz<1¢MOUZ>99¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MOUZ

Consensus Traders

MOUZ 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$77.5K

Combined PnL

-$421.39

Smart Money Entry

72.8¢ → 100¢

+37% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

11 of 22 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

TheMongolz0%

MOUZ100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MOUZ11 traders

Total Value$55.7K

Total Shares69,038

Combined PnL$-2.5K

TheMongolz11 traders

Total Value$20.9K

Total Shares41,727

Combined PnL+$2.1K

MOUZ — 50%TheMongolz — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	MOUZavg 66.2¢	$25.2K	$25.5K	+$307.78	54% 50820-42775 (93595)
cruzNBACTR	TheMongolzavg 42¢	$8.5K	$11.5K	+$3.0K	41% 350-499 (849)
JohnLKellyJr	MOUZavg 62.2¢	$10.9K	$8.3K	$-2.6K	53% 1031-910 (1941)
RE redvinny	MOUZavg 88¢	$17.6K	$7.2K	+$463.48	75% 1391-464 (1855)
noreasapa	MOUZavg 99.9¢	$7.0K	$7.0K	+$3.52	92% 3347-306 (3653)
0X 0x246bE8A4e3805E318801B79AD1Ee1268d5fbFB5b-1773192326048	MOUZavg 74.4¢	$6.0K	$5.3K	-$721.15	69% 226-101 (327)
TH THEHIGHLIFECTR	TheMongolzavg 54¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	-$34.28	54% 2409-2079 (4488)
FA facaigegeCTR	TheMongolzavg 47.3¢	$2.9K	$2.1K	-$782.61	49% 363-381 (744)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	MOUZavg 88.9¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$9.01	51% 1087-1048 (2135)
QI qidao001CTR	TheMongolzavg 58.8¢	$912.31	$830.62	-$81.69	86% 1374-230 (1604)
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100	MOUZavg 64.8¢	$816.39	$789.96	-$26.43	54% 924-774 (1698)
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 64.8¢	$578.69	$460.09	-$118.61
└ TheMongolz leg	TheMongolzavg 34.9¢	$237.7	$329.88	+$92.18
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	TheMongolzavg 53.1¢	$689.1	$680.77	-$8.34	53% 2599-2307 (4906)
AD adururuCTR	TheMongolzavg 54¢	$535.49	$530.53	-$4.96	54% 330-283 (613)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	TheMongolzavg 54¢	$508.26	$503.56	-$4.71	52% 259-238 (497)
JO jole24CTR	TheMongolzavg 19¢	$380	$390	+$10	45% 986-1229 (2215)
PA panpidaras1CTR	TheMongolzavg 54¢	$400	$388.89	-$11.11	54% 165-139 (304)
RU Ruler11	MOUZavg 48¢	$300	$296.88	-$3.13	51% 267-256 (523)
poshposhCTR	TheMongolzavg 38.3¢	$170.46	$233.93	+$63.48	44% 2201-2835 (5036)
Basquetipster	MOUZavg 69¢	$200	$204.35	+$4.35	69% 1609-728 (2337)
CH chillhouse123ARB<$100	TheMongolzavg 44.7¢	$491.03	$161.77	-$47.75	53% 3355-3006 (6361)
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 62.8¢	$86.75	$122.16	+$102.73
└ TheMongolz leg	TheMongolzavg 44.7¢	$153.89	$39.6	-$150.48
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	MOUZavg 64.3¢	$63.04	$50.62	-$12.42	49% 17082-17463 (34545)
forsenxd<$100	MOUZavg 68¢	$46.58	$48.29	+$1.71	54% 1003-869 (1872)
MA manoamanoCTR<$100	TheMongolzavg 12¢	$48.94	$46.9	-$2.04	51% 412-395 (807)
RL RLWG<$100	MOUZavg 71¢	$7.1	$7.05	-$0.05	57% 6200-4745 (10945)

RN1

MOUZ

Invested

$25,157.3

Value

$25.5K

PnL

+$307.78

Record

54%

50820-42775 (93595)

cruzNBACTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$8,541.21

Value

$11.5K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

41%

350-499 (849)

JohnLKellyJr

MOUZ

Invested

$10,857.73

Value

$8.3K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

53%

1031-910 (1941)

redvinny

MOUZ

Invested

$17,648.8

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$463.48

Record

75%

1391-464 (1855)

noreasapa

MOUZ

Invested

$7,034.52

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$3.52

Record

92%

3347-306 (3653)

0x246bE8A4e3805E318801B79AD1Ee1268d5fbFB5b-1773192326048

MOUZ

Invested

$6,000

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$721.15

Record

69%

226-101 (327)

THEHIGHLIFECTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$3,702.18

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$34.28

Record

54%

2409-2079 (4488)

facaigegeCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$2,898.93

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$782.61

Record

49%

363-381 (744)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

MOUZ

Invested

$1,780

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$9.01

Record

51%

1087-1048 (2135)

qidao001CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$912.31

Value

$830.62

PnL

-$81.69

Record

86%

1374-230 (1604)

TommyLeePeecaARB<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$816.39

Value

$789.96

PnL

-$26.43

Record

54%

924-774 (1698)

Both legs:

MOUZ$578.6964.8¢-$118.61

TheMongolz$237.734.9¢+$92.18

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$689.1

Value

$680.77

PnL

-$8.34

Record

53%

2599-2307 (4906)

adururuCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$535.49

Value

$530.53

PnL

-$4.96

Record

54%

330-283 (613)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$508.26

Value

$503.56

PnL

-$4.71

Record

52%

259-238 (497)

jole24CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$380

Value

$390

PnL

+$10

Record

45%

986-1229 (2215)

panpidaras1CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$400

Value

$388.89

PnL

-$11.11

Record

54%

165-139 (304)

Ruler11

MOUZ

Invested

$300

Value

$296.88

PnL

-$3.13

Record

51%

267-256 (523)

poshposhCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$170.46

Value

$233.93

PnL

+$63.48

Record

44%

2201-2835 (5036)

Basquetipster

MOUZ

Invested

$200

Value

$204.35

PnL

+$4.35

Record

69%

1609-728 (2337)

chillhouse123ARB<$100

TheMongolz

Invested

$491.03

Value

$161.77

PnL

-$47.75

Record

53%

3355-3006 (6361)

Both legs:

MOUZ$86.7562.8¢+$102.73

TheMongolz$153.8944.7¢-$150.48

omnibus-076daa<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$63.04

Value

$50.62

PnL

-$12.42

Record

49%

17082-17463 (34545)

forsenxd<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$46.58

Value

$48.29

PnL

+$1.71

Record

54%

1003-869 (1872)

manoamanoCTR<$100

TheMongolz

Invested

$48.94

Value

$46.9

PnL

-$2.04

Record

51%

412-395 (807)

RLWG<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$7.1

Value

$7.05

PnL

-$0.05

Record

57%

6200-4745 (10945)

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

11 of 22 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MOUZ wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.