Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ (83%) · MOUZ at 76¢ · $19K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
MOUZ
6
MOUZ 83%
$19.2K
$257.21
73.6¢ → 75.5¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralMOUZ at 76%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on MOUZ. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR TrippleEX | MOUZavg 74¢ | $7.4K | $7.5K | +$100 | 57% 271-201 (472) |
 relativesignificance | MOUZavg 72¢ | $4.6K | $4.8K | +$95.01 | 59% 71-50 (121) |
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F | MOUZavg 74.2¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | +$10.12 | 53% 106-93 (199) |
KA kahe | MOUZavg 75¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | +$18.83 | 68% 573-273 (846) |
 hasobidale | MOUZavg 71¢ | $802.3 | $847.5 | +$28.25 | 66% 195-99 (294) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | TheMongolzavg 25¢ | $250 | $255 | +$5 | 57% 4739-3553 (8292) |
Invested
$7,400
Value
$7.5K
PnL
+$100
Record
57%
271-201 (472)
relativesignificanceInvested
$4,605.51
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$95.01
Record
59%
71-50 (121)
Invested
$2,906.8
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$10.12
Record
53%
106-93 (199)
Invested
$2,824.12
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$18.83
Record
68%
573-273 (846)
hasobidaleInvested
$802.3
Value
$847.5
PnL
+$28.25
Record
66%
195-99 (294)
Invested
$250
Value
$255
PnL
+$5
Record
57%
4739-3553 (8292)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.