Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Legacy (33%) · Legacy at 56¢ · $19K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Legacy
6
Legacy 33%
$18.9K
$65.52
56¢ → 56.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralLegacy at 56%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 norrisfan | Legacyavg 56¢ | $12.4K | $12.5K | +$110.84 | 43% 472-614 (1086) |
TR TrippleEXCTR | TheMongolzavg 44¢ | $4.4K | $4.3K | -$50 | 57% 278-207 (485) |
RA RayayaCTR | TheMongolzavg 44¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$15 | 60% 1143-752 (1895) |
HU humbleboy | Legacyavg 55¢ | $481.92 | $495.07 | +$13.14 | 54% 488-418 (906) |
 hasobidaleCTR | TheMongolzavg 41.9¢ | $166.03 | $172.27 | +$6.23 | 67% 202-101 (303) |
 relativesignificanceCTR<$100 | TheMongolzavg 43¢ | $26.99 | $27.31 | +$0.31 | 58% 84-61 (145) |
norrisfanInvested
$12,413.52
Value
$12.5K
PnL
+$110.84
Record
43%
472-614 (1086)
Invested
$4,399.99
Value
$4.3K
PnL
-$50
Record
57%
278-207 (485)
Invested
$1,320
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$15
Record
60%
1143-752 (1895)
Invested
$481.92
Value
$495.07
PnL
+$13.14
Record
54%
488-418 (906)
hasobidaleCTRInvested
$166.03
Value
$172.27
PnL
+$6.23
Record
67%
202-101 (303)
relativesignificanceCTR<$100Invested
$26.99
Value
$27.31
PnL
+$0.31
Record
58%
84-61 (145)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.