Counter-Strike: magic vs BIG (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold BIG (100%) · BIG at 59¢ · $12K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
BIG
5
BIG 100%
$11.5K
$241.83
57¢ → 58.5¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralBIG at 59%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on BIG. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WI Wiretransferxyz | BIGavg 57¢ | $7.0K | $7.0K | +$184.21 | 53% 723-633 (1356) |
RA Rayaya | BIGavg 56¢ | $2.2K | $2.3K | +$100.01 | 60% 1143-752 (1895) |
 KateBollinger | BIGavg 58¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$29.08 | 69% 1713-774 (2487) |
MA manoamano | BIGavg 58.5¢ | $539.11 | $524.92 | -$14.19 | 51% 426-412 (838) |
HU humbleboy<$100 | BIGavg 55¢ | $13.68 | $14.55 | +$0.87 | 54% 488-418 (906) |
Invested
$6,997.43
Value
$7.0K
PnL
+$184.21
Record
53%
723-633 (1356)
Invested
$2,239.96
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$100.01
Record
60%
1143-752 (1895)
KateBollingerInvested
$1,686.4
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$29.08
Record
69%
1713-774 (2487)
Invested
$539.11
Value
$524.92
PnL
-$14.19
Record
51%
426-412 (838)
Invested
$13.68
Value
$14.55
PnL
+$0.87
Record
54%
488-418 (906)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.