Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs DENDELE CS (+1.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold DENDELE CS (40%) · DENDELE CS at 56¢ · $18K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
DENDELE CS
5
DENDELE CS 40%
$17.7K
-$6.89
55¢ → 55.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralDENDELE CS at 56%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on DENDELE CS. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WI Wiretransferxyz | DENDELE CSavg 55¢ | $9.4K | $9.5K | +$85.48 | 54% 593-503 (1096) |
VI vibing123CTR | Legacyavg 45¢ | $4.5K | $4.4K | -$50 | 57% 1281-982 (2263) |
HU humbleboyCTR | Legacyavg 45¢ | $3.5K | $3.4K | -$38.75 | 54% 398-333 (731) |
MA manoamano | DENDELE CSavg 56¢ | $244.85 | $242.66 | -$2.19 | 70% 384-167 (551) |
 relativesignificanceCTR | Legacyavg 45.1¢ | $115.12 | $113.68 | -$1.44 | 57% 56-43 (99) |
Invested
$9,403.06
Value
$9.5K
PnL
+$85.48
Record
54%
593-503 (1096)
Invested
$4,499.99
Value
$4.4K
PnL
-$50
Record
57%
1281-982 (2263)
Invested
$3,487.5
Value
$3.4K
PnL
-$38.75
Record
54%
398-333 (731)
Invested
$244.85
Value
$242.66
PnL
-$2.19
Record
70%
384-167 (551)
relativesignificanceCTRInvested
$115.12
Value
$113.68
PnL
-$1.44
Record
57%
56-43 (99)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.