Counter-Strike: Legacy vs DENDELE CS - Map 2 Winner

10 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Legacy (53%) · Legacy at 80¢ · $96K held · ends Oct 25

Legacy80¢DENDELE CS20¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Legacy

Consensus Traders

Legacy 53%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$96.2K

Combined PnL

$2.8K

Smart Money Entry

56.3¢ → 79.5¢

+41% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralLegacy at 80%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Legacy

10 of 19 top traders (53%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Legacy80%

DENDELE CS21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Legacy10 traders

Total Value$74.4K

Total Shares86,880

Combined PnL+$8.4K

DENDELE CS9 traders

Total Value$13.5K

Total Shares37,689

Combined PnL$-5.6K

Legacy — 53%DENDELE CS — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Legacyavg 57.8¢	$52.6K	$58.3K	+$5.7K	55% 43612-35879 (79491)
cruzNBACTR	DENDELE CSavg 51.5¢	$14.9K	$10.4K	$-4.5K	41% 331-467 (798)
AN AnibalAugustoSardinha	Legacyavg 34.3¢	$3.2K	$5.9K	+$2.8K	55% 46-37 (83)
FA facaigegeARB<$100	DENDELE CSavg 55.9¢	$7.1K	$5.5K	$-1.6K	49% 355-375 (730)
└ Legacy leg	Legacyavg 70¢	$3.5K	$3.2K	-$300
└ DENDELE CS leg	DENDELE CSavg 55.9¢	$3.6K	$2.3K	$-1.3K
JohnLKellyJr	Legacyavg 62.7¢	$3.9K	$4.0K	+$79.58	53% 917-799 (1716)
RA Rayaya	Legacyavg 73¢	$2.9K	$2.7K	-$200	59% 993-680 (1673)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Legacyavg 53.3¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$134.89	58% 16155-11793 (27948)
└ Legacy leg	Legacyavg 53.3¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$325.85
└ DENDELE CS leg	DENDELE CSavg 48.2¢	$756.35	$565.38	-$190.97
TO TommyLeePeeca	Legacyavg 67.5¢	$6.9K	$1.2K	+$69.09	55% 867-722 (1589)
TH THEHIGHLIFECTR	DENDELE CSavg 46.4¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$330.45	54% 2342-2023 (4365)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Legacyavg 59.2¢	$804.2	$829.6	+$25.4	53% 2388-2121 (4509)
PA panpidaras1	Legacyavg 39.7¢	$1.0K	$823.09	+$5.4	54% 153-129 (282)
DE delacsynzy1CTR	DENDELE CSavg 50.1¢	$1.0K	$718.54	-$281.46	51% 400-384 (784)
RR rrooster	Legacyavg 71.7¢	$537.5	$480	-$57.5	62% 1145-689 (1834)
CH chillhouse123CTR	DENDELE CSavg 43.4¢	$948.48	$408.37	-$115.65	54% 2727-2308 (5035)
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR	DENDELE CSavg 51.6¢	$1.2K	$284.4	-$223.88	47% 780-895 (1675)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	DENDELE CSavg 27.4¢	$188.44	$270.97	+$82.53	59% 13959-9681 (23640)
└ DENDELE CS leg	DENDELE CSavg 27.4¢	$162.6	$213.99	+$51.39
└ Legacy leg	Legacyavg 29¢	$25.84	$56.98	+$31.14
QI qidao001CTR	DENDELE CSavg 48.3¢	$359.57	$268.06	-$91.51	86% 1361-225 (1586)
AD adururuCTR	DENDELE CSavg 48.2¢	$179.7	$134.24	-$45.45	54% 292-248 (540)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	DENDELE CSavg 48.2¢	$179.7	$134.24	-$45.45	52% 219-201 (420)
SH shiifoo<$100	Legacyavg 30.7¢	$45.05	$94	+$48.95	62% 2601-1621 (4222)
MA manoamanoCTR<$100	DENDELE CSavg 25¢	$48.73	$39.96	-$8.77	69% 394-173 (567)
RL RLWG<$100	Legacyavg 62¢	$9.3	$9.6	+$0.3	51% 4062-3928 (7990)

RN1

Legacy

Invested

$52,593.67

Value

$58.3K

PnL

+$5.7K

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

cruzNBACTR

DENDELE CS

Invested

$14,908.1

Value

$10.4K

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

41%

331-467 (798)

AnibalAugustoSardinha

Legacy

Invested

$3,189.16

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

55%

46-37 (83)

facaigegeARB<$100

DENDELE CS

Invested

$7,072.64

Value

$5.5K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

49%

355-375 (730)

Both legs:

Legacy$3,50070¢-$300

DENDELE CS$3,572.6455.9¢$-1.3K

JohnLKellyJr

Legacy

Invested

$3,879.92

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$79.58

Record

53%

917-799 (1716)

Rayaya

Legacy

Invested

$2,919.99

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$200

Record

59%

993-680 (1673)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Legacy

Invested

$2,378.65

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$134.89

Record

58%

16155-11793 (27948)

Both legs:

Legacy$1,622.3153.3¢+$325.85

DENDELE CS$756.3548.2¢-$190.97

TommyLeePeeca

Legacy

Invested

$6,878.21

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$69.09

Record

55%

867-722 (1589)

THEHIGHLIFECTR

DENDELE CS

Invested

$1,471.25

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$330.45

Record

54%

2342-2023 (4365)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Legacy

Invested

$804.2

Value

$829.6

PnL

+$25.4

Record

53%

2388-2121 (4509)

panpidaras1

Legacy

Invested

$1,047.6

Value

$823.09

PnL

+$5.4

Record

54%

153-129 (282)

delacsynzy1CTR

DENDELE CS

Invested

$1,000

Value

$718.54

PnL

-$281.46

Record

51%

400-384 (784)

rrooster

Legacy

Invested

$537.5

Value

$480

PnL

-$57.5

Record

62%

1145-689 (1834)

chillhouse123CTR

DENDELE CS

Invested

$948.48

Value

$408.37

PnL

-$115.65

Record

54%

2727-2308 (5035)

0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR

DENDELE CS

Invested

$1,189.13

Value

$284.4

PnL

-$223.88

Record

47%

780-895 (1675)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

DENDELE CS

Invested

$188.44

Value

$270.97

PnL

+$82.53

Record

59%

13959-9681 (23640)

Both legs:

DENDELE CS$162.627.4¢+$51.39

Legacy$25.8429¢+$31.14

qidao001CTR

DENDELE CS

Invested

$359.57

Value

$268.06

PnL

-$91.51

Record

86%

1361-225 (1586)

adururuCTR

DENDELE CS

Invested

$179.7

Value

$134.24

PnL

-$45.45

Record

54%

292-248 (540)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

DENDELE CS

Invested

$179.7

Value

$134.24

PnL

-$45.45

Record

52%

219-201 (420)

shiifoo<$100

Legacy

Invested

$45.05

Value

$94

PnL

+$48.95

Record

62%

2601-1621 (4222)

manoamanoCTR<$100

DENDELE CS

Invested

$48.73

Value

$39.96

PnL

-$8.77

Record

69%

394-173 (567)

RLWG<$100

Legacy

Invested

$9.3

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$0.3

Record

51%

4062-3928 (7990)

Research grade

NeutralLegacy at 80%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Legacy

10 of 19 top traders (53%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Legacy wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.