Counter-Strike: Legacy vs DENDELE CS - Map 1 Winner

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Legacy (50%) · Legacy at 100¢ · $42K held · ends Oct 25

Legacy>99¢DENDELE CS<1¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Legacy

Consensus Traders

Legacy 50%

Total Value

$42.3K

Combined PnL

$395.32

Smart Money Entry

87.6¢ → 100¢

+14% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralLegacy at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Legacy

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Legacy100%

DENDELE CS0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Legacy6 traders

Total Value$33.6K

Total Shares40,885

Combined PnL$-2.7K

DENDELE CS6 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares24,318

Combined PnL+$3.1K

Legacy — 50%DENDELE CS — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
noreasapa	Legacyavg 99.9¢	$12.3K	$12.3K	+$6.16	92% 3195-290 (3485)
RN1	Legacyavg 63.8¢	$7.5K	$9.8K	+$2.3K	55% 43593-35871 (79464)
cruzNBACTR	DENDELE CSavg 22.4¢	$3.6K	$5.6K	+$2.1K	41% 330-467 (797)
Q7 q7662504	Legacyavg 95¢	$11.5K	$5.4K	$-2.3K	89% 325-40 (365)
RE redvinny	Legacyavg 92.9¢	$5.4K	$3.8K	$-1.7K	75% 1327-438 (1765)
RR rrooster	Legacyavg 91.7¢	$3.2K	$2.3K	-$953.09	62% 1144-688 (1832)
IV Ivan948CTR	DENDELE CSavg 32.5¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$133.35	40% 31-46 (77)
CL claudesportsCTR	DENDELE CSavg 5¢	$121.4	$861.93	+$740.53	45% 186-231 (417)
BI BillBenter2026CTR	DENDELE CSavg 38¢	$396.26	$327.99	-$68.28	58% 16152-11790 (27942)
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR	DENDELE CSavg 4.9¢	$36.1	$260.57	+$224.47	47% 779-895 (1674)
CH chillhouse123	Legacyavg 82.1¢	$161.3	$126.74	-$34.56	54% 2713-2304 (5017)
PA panpidaras1CTR	DENDELE CSavg 38¢	$104.76	$97.87	-$6.89	54% 153-129 (282)

noreasapa

Legacy

Invested

$12,307.58

Value

$12.3K

PnL

+$6.16

Record

92%

3195-290 (3485)

RN1

Legacy

Invested

$7,482.7

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

55%

43593-35871 (79464)

cruzNBACTR

DENDELE CS

Invested

$3,560.94

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

41%

330-467 (797)

q7662504

Legacy

Invested

$11,466.99

Value

$5.4K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

89%

325-40 (365)

redvinny

Legacy

Invested

$5,404.1

Value

$3.8K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

75%

1327-438 (1765)

rrooster

Legacy

Invested

$3,210.59

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$953.09

Record

62%

1144-688 (1832)

Ivan948CTR

DENDELE CS

Invested

$1,457.23

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$133.35

Record

40%

31-46 (77)

claudesportsCTR

DENDELE CS

Invested

$121.4

Value

$861.93

PnL

+$740.53

Record

45%

186-231 (417)

BillBenter2026CTR

DENDELE CS

Invested

$396.26

Value

$327.99

PnL

-$68.28

Record

58%

16152-11790 (27942)

0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR

DENDELE CS

Invested

$36.1

Value

$260.57

PnL

+$224.47

Record

47%

779-895 (1674)

chillhouse123

Legacy

Invested

$161.3

Value

$126.74

PnL

-$34.56

Record

54%

2713-2304 (5017)

panpidaras1CTR

DENDELE CS

Invested

$104.76

Value

$97.87

PnL

-$6.89

Record

54%

153-129 (282)

Research grade

NeutralLegacy at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Smart Money Signal

Legacy

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Legacy wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.