Counter-Strike: Legacy vs DENDELE CS (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Legacy (60%) · Legacy at 73¢ · $10K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Legacy
5
Legacy 60%
$9.6K
-$98.55
74.8¢ → 72.5¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralLegacy at 73%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR TrippleEX | Legacyavg 74.9¢ | $7.9K | $7.6K | -$254.09 | 57% 265-199 (464) |
WI WiretransferxyzCTR | DENDELE CSavg 25¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$129.33 | 54% 593-503 (1096) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | DENDELE CSavg 25¢ | $250 | $280 | +$25 | 69% 4202-1899 (6101) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Legacyavg 72¢ | $275.99 | $275.99 | +$1.92 | 65% 1520-814 (2334) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Legacyavg 73¢ | $101.89 | $101.19 | -$0.7 | 59% 13723-9541 (23264) |
Invested
$7,862.72
Value
$7.6K
PnL
-$254.09
Record
57%
265-199 (464)
Invested
$1,293.25
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$129.33
Record
54%
593-503 (1096)
Invested
$250
Value
$280
PnL
+$25
Record
69%
4202-1899 (6101)
Invested
$275.99
Value
$275.99
PnL
+$1.92
Record
65%
1520-814 (2334)
Invested
$101.89
Value
$101.19
PnL
-$0.7
Record
59%
13723-9541 (23264)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.