Counter-Strike: Imperial vs paiN (BO3) - Circuit X Curitiba Playoffs

1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Imperial (33%) · Imperial at 85¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 26

Imperial85¢paiN15¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Imperial

Consensus Traders

Imperial 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Research grade

NeutralImperial at 85%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Imperial

1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Imperial85%

paiN15%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Imperial1 trader

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares4,658

Combined PnL+$23.29

paiN2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares7,812

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Imperial — 33%paiN — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA madkkee	Imperialavg 72¢	$3.4K	$4.0K	+$23.29	66% 919-477 (1396)
RN1ARB<$100	Imperialavg 79.7¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$492.05	55% 45430-37648 (83078)
└ Imperial leg	Imperialavg 79.7¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$189.25
└ paiN leg	paiNavg 28.2¢	$839.07	$446.5	-$681.3
VI vibing123CTR	paiNavg 34¢	$2.6K	$1.1K	$-1.5K	57% 1334-1023 (2357)
TO TommyLeePeecaCTR	paiNavg 23.1¢	$1.5K	$30.59	-$4.37	54% 904-759 (1663)

madkkee

Imperial

Invested

$3,353.43

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$23.29

Record

66%

919-477 (1396)

RN1ARB<$100

Imperial

Invested

$1,722.43

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$492.05

Record

55%

45430-37648 (83078)

Both legs:

Imperial$1,005.7779.7¢+$189.25

paiN$839.0728.2¢-$681.3

vibing123CTR

paiN

Invested

$2,586.84

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

57%

1334-1023 (2357)

TommyLeePeecaCTR

paiN

Invested

$1,531.56

Value

$30.59

PnL

-$4.37

Record

54%

904-759 (1663)

Research grade

NeutralImperial at 85%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Imperial

1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Imperial wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.6%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.