Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Team Nemesis (33%) · Team Nemesis at 51¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Team Nemesis
6
Team Nemesis 33%
$6.9K
-$260.72
58¢ → 50.5¢
-13% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralTeam Nemesis at 51%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Team Nemesis. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Reformedx | Team Nemesisavg 58¢ | $6.0K | $3.2K | -$270 | 52% 758-696 (1454) |
LL lllllllIlllCTR | Inner Circle Esportsavg 42¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$0 | 53% 260-227 (487) |
 JohnLKellyJrCTR | Inner Circle Esportsavg 49.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$0.58 | 53% 1110-969 (2079) |
 DumplingBMFCTR | Inner Circle Esportsavg 37¢ | $246.79 | $280.14 | +$16.68 | 68% 1780-820 (2600) |
BE berlinskiesCTR | Inner Circle Esportsavg 41.7¢ | $434.62 | $202.1 | +$20.68 | 58% 5606-4134 (9740) |
GT gt7238 | Team Nemesisavg 58¢ | $127.59 | $100.1 | -$27.5 | 45% 569-690 (1259) |
ReformedxInvested
$5,999.93
Value
$3.2K
PnL
-$270
Record
52%
758-696 (1454)
Invested
$1,989.15
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
260-227 (487)
JohnLKellyJrCTRInvested
$1,164.47
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$0.58
Record
53%
1110-969 (2079)
DumplingBMFCTRInvested
$246.79
Value
$280.14
PnL
+$16.68
Record
68%
1780-820 (2600)
Invested
$434.62
Value
$202.1
PnL
+$20.68
Record
58%
5606-4134 (9740)
Invested
$127.59
Value
$100.1
PnL
-$27.5
Record
45%
569-690 (1259)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.