Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs
4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Inner Circle Esports (40%) · Inner Circle Esports at 65¢ · $63K held · ends Oct 27
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Neutral
Inner Circle Esports
10
Inner Circle Esports 40%
$63.4K
-$580.32
59.9¢ → 64.5¢
+8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralInner Circle Esports at 65%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LL lllllllIlll | Inner Circle Esportsavg 59.3¢ | $18.4K | $19.4K | +$999.66 | 54% 259-222 (481) |
GO GooooooollllllllllCTR | Team Nemesisavg 39¢ | $12.7K | $12.8K | +$162.5 | 50% 1133-1147 (2280) |
 DumplingBMF | Inner Circle Esportsavg 61.6¢ | $9.3K | $9.5K | +$285.87 | 68% 1775-819 (2594) |
VI vibing123CTR | Team Nemesisavg 46.8¢ | $8.1K | $6.6K | $-1.5K | 52% 1482-1357 (2839) |
JO JohnnyWins | Inner Circle Esportsavg 61¢ | $5.8K | $5.0K | -$760 | 42% 111-154 (265) |
HU humbleboyCTR | Team Nemesisavg 40¢ | $4.0K | $4.7K | +$700 | 54% 476-409 (885) |
 ReformedxCTR | Team Nemesisavg 40.9¢ | $3.3K | $2.8K | -$470 | 52% 755-695 (1450) |
CR Crazyboy77 | Inner Circle Esportsavg 53¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$0 | 51% 166-161 (327) |
SE sentrioCTR | Team Nemesisavg 39¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$14.6 | 50% 12215-12358 (24573) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Team Nemesisavg 41¢ | $2.05 | $2.35 | +$0.3 | 60% 39862-26488 (66350) |
Invested
$18,352.32
Value
$19.4K
PnL
+$999.66
Record
54%
259-222 (481)
Invested
$12,675
Value
$12.8K
PnL
+$162.5
Record
50%
1133-1147 (2280)
DumplingBMFInvested
$9,255.45
Value
$9.5K
PnL
+$285.87
Record
68%
1775-819 (2594)
Invested
$8,119.87
Value
$6.6K
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
52%
1482-1357 (2839)
Invested
$5,795
Value
$5.0K
PnL
-$760
Record
42%
111-154 (265)
Invested
$3,999.99
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$700
Record
54%
476-409 (885)
ReformedxCTRInvested
$3,270
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$470
Record
52%
755-695 (1450)
Invested
$1,325
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
166-161 (327)
Invested
$1,139.05
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$14.6
Record
50%
12215-12358 (24573)
Invested
$2.05
Value
$2.35
PnL
+$0.3
Record
60%
39862-26488 (66350)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
lllllllIlll
Inner Circle Esports — $19.4K
Gooooooollllllllll
CTRTeam Nemesis — $12.8K
DumplingBMF
Inner Circle Esports — $9.5K
vibing123
CTRTeam Nemesis — $6.6K
JohnnyWins
Inner Circle Esports — $5.0K
humbleboy
CTRTeam Nemesis — $4.7K
Reformedx
CTRTeam Nemesis — $2.8K
Crazyboy77
Inner Circle Esports — $1.3K
sentrio
CTRTeam Nemesis — $1.2K
UpTheBlues
CTRTeam Nemesis — $2.35