Counter-Strike: HAVU vs ILLYRIANS (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #12 Group Stage

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold ILLYRIANS (50%) · ILLYRIANS at 63¢ · $331 held · ends Oct 26

HAVU37¢ILLYRIANS63¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

ILLYRIANS

Consensus Traders

ILLYRIANS 50%

Total Value

$330.85

Combined PnL

$110.87

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 63¢

+26% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralILLYRIANS at 63%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

ILLYRIANS

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

HAVU37%

ILLYRIANS63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

ILLYRIANS2 traders

Total Value$290.09

Total Shares404

Combined PnL+$87.14

HAVU2 traders

Total Value$40.76

Total Shares98

Combined PnL+$23.73

ILLYRIANS — 50%HAVU — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	ILLYRIANSavg 49.9¢	$198.08	$285.78	+$87.71	54% 116-97 (213)
0X 0x4f2CTR<$100	HAVUavg 13.3¢	$14.29	$31.55	+$17.26	52% 8921-8355 (17276)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	HAVUavg 11¢	$2.74	$9.21	+$6.47	60% 27626-18599 (46225)
poshposh<$100	ILLYRIANSavg 47¢	$3.12	$4.31	-$0.56	61% 8644-5579 (14223)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

ILLYRIANS

Invested

$198.08

Value

$285.78

PnL

+$87.71

Record

54%

116-97 (213)

0x4f2CTR<$100

HAVU

Invested

$14.29

Value

$31.55

PnL

+$17.26

Record

52%

8921-8355 (17276)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

HAVU

Invested

$2.74

Value

$9.21

PnL

+$6.47

Record

60%

27626-18599 (46225)

poshposh<$100

ILLYRIANS

Invested

$3.12

Value

$4.31

PnL

-$0.56

Record

61%

8644-5579 (14223)

Research grade

NeutralILLYRIANS at 63%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

ILLYRIANS

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that ILLYRIANS wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.