Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold G2, while the market favors DENDELE CS (54%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs DENDELE CS (+1.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold G2 (60%) · G2 at 47¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 26

G247¢DENDELE CS53¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

G2 60%

Total Value

$6.8K

Combined PnL

-$40.03

Smart Money Entry

46.6¢ → 46.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralG2 at 47%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors DENDELE CS 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

G247%

DENDELE CS54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

DENDELE CS2 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares6,063

Combined PnL-$3.59

G23 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares7,752

Combined PnL-$36.44

DENDELE CS — 40%G2 — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WI Wiretransferxyz	DENDELE CSavg 53¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$0	54% 621-534 (1155)
relativesignificanceCTR	G2avg 47¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$49.39	58% 69-49 (118)
HU humbleboyCTR	G2avg 46¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$12.95	54% 412-346 (758)
MA manoamano	DENDELE CSavg 54.3¢	$146.76	$143.17	-$3.59	69% 402-182 (584)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	G2avg 47¢	$21.71	$21.71	+$0	59% 14319-9905 (24224)

Wiretransferxyz

DENDELE CS

Invested

$3,070.42

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

621-534 (1155)

relativesignificanceCTR

Invested

$2,402.81

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$49.39

Record

58%

69-49 (118)

humbleboyCTR

Invested

$1,191.39

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$12.95

Record

54%

412-346 (758)

manoamano

DENDELE CS

Invested

$146.76

Value

$143.17

PnL

-$3.59

Record

69%

402-182 (584)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Invested

$21.71

Value

$21.71

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

14319-9905 (24224)

Research grade

NeutralG2 at 47%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors DENDELE CS 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that G2 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.