Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold G2, while the market favors DENDELE CS (51%). 13 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Counter-Strike: G2 vs DENDELE CS - Map 2 Winner

13 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold G2 (76%) · G2 at 50¢ · $62K held · ends Oct 26

G250¢DENDELE CS50¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

G2 76%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$61.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Entry

65.6¢ → 49.5¢

-25% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralG2 at 50%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 17 top traders (76%)Underdog side (market favors DENDELE CS 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

G250%

DENDELE CS51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

G213 traders

Total Value$29.0K

Total Shares47,406

Combined PnL$-2.1K

DENDELE CS4 traders

Total Value$11.3K

Total Shares33,152

Combined PnL+$332.63

G2 — 76%DENDELE CS — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	DENDELE CSavg 38.9¢	$20.2K	$21.5K	+$1.3K	54% 51866-43791 (95657)
└ DENDELE CS leg	DENDELE CSavg 38.9¢	$11.9K	$15.2K	+$3.3K
└ G2 leg	G2avg 66.3¢	$8.3K	$6.3K	$-2.0K
JohnLKellyJrCTR	G2avg 63.7¢	$13.1K	$11.8K	$-1.3K	53% 1078-955 (2033)
LL lllllllIlll	DENDELE CSavg 29.9¢	$7.7K	$7.9K	+$144.28	54% 259-222 (481)
MU muneyenjayerrrCTR	G2avg 70¢	$6.2K	$6.3K	+$89.03	58% 253-182 (435)
AQ aqzfssqkqzbcbr1994CTR	G2avg 65.8¢	$6.7K	$5.9K	-$850.99	57% 628-479 (1107)
NO nobody2somebodyCTR	G2avg 71.4¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$11.05	52% 589-549 (1138)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	DENDELE CSavg 46.6¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$91.3	53% 2863-2520 (5383)
PA panpidaras1	DENDELE CSavg 43.8¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$107.16	54% 167-141 (308)
hasobidaleCTR	G2avg 70¢	$700	$710	+$10	66% 198-100 (298)
KateBollinger	DENDELE CSavg 33¢	$667.46	$657.35	-$10.11	69% 1708-765 (2473)
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR	G2avg 56¢	$963.91	$515.2	-$50.47	46% 843-1006 (1849)
RU Ruler11CTR	G2avg 53¢	$500	$476.42	-$23.58	51% 269-259 (528)
latvian.demonCTR	G2avg 60.3¢	$496	$472.84	-$23.16	53% 578-505 (1083)
AS astapzippoCTR	G2avg 67.5¢	$269.99	$269.99	+$0	56% 2062-1603 (3665)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	G2avg 70¢	$233.33	$236.67	+$3.33	53% 5255-4588 (9843)
RE RebornAthenaCTR	G2avg 57¢	$100	$97.37	-$2.63	53% 1975-1778 (3753)
poshposhCTR<$100	G2avg 67¢	$32.96	$34.19	+$1.23	61% 8644-5579 (14223)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	G2avg 64¢	$6.4	$5.75	-$0.65	59% 7418-5134 (12552)

RN1ARB<$100

DENDELE CS

Invested

$20,210.81

Value

$21.5K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

54%

51866-43791 (95657)

Both legs:

DENDELE CS$11,934.9338.9¢+$3.3K

G2$8,275.8866.3¢$-2.0K

JohnLKellyJrCTR

Invested

$13,122.09

Value

$11.8K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

53%

1078-955 (2033)

lllllllIlll

DENDELE CS

Invested

$7,706.54

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$144.28

Record

54%

259-222 (481)

muneyenjayerrrCTR

Invested

$6,231.8

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$89.03

Record

58%

253-182 (435)

aqzfssqkqzbcbr1994CTR

Invested

$6,715.99

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$850.99

Record

57%

628-479 (1107)

nobody2somebodyCTR

Invested

$2,200

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$11.05

Record

52%

589-549 (1138)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

DENDELE CS

Invested

$1,449.46

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$91.3

Record

53%

2863-2520 (5383)

panpidaras1

DENDELE CS

Invested

$1,219.04

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$107.16

Record

54%

167-141 (308)

hasobidaleCTR

Invested

$700

Value

$710

PnL

+$10

Record

66%

198-100 (298)

KateBollinger

DENDELE CS

Invested

$667.46

Value

$657.35

PnL

-$10.11

Record

69%

1708-765 (2473)

0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR

Invested

$963.91

Value

$515.2

PnL

-$50.47

Record

46%

843-1006 (1849)

Ruler11CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$476.42

PnL

-$23.58

Record

51%

269-259 (528)

latvian.demonCTR

Invested

$496

Value

$472.84

PnL

-$23.16

Record

53%

578-505 (1083)

astapzippoCTR

Invested

$269.99

Value

$269.99

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2062-1603 (3665)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Invested

$233.33

Value

$236.67

PnL

+$3.33

Record

53%

5255-4588 (9843)

RebornAthenaCTR

Invested

$100

Value

$97.37

PnL

-$2.63

Record

53%

1975-1778 (3753)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$32.96

Value

$34.19

PnL

+$1.23

Record

61%

8644-5579 (14223)

RLWGCTR<$100

Invested

$6.4

Value

$5.75

PnL

-$0.65

Record

59%

7418-5134 (12552)

Research grade

NeutralG2 at 50%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 17 top traders (76%)Underdog side (market favors DENDELE CS 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that G2 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.