Counter-Strike: G2 vs DENDELE CS (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold G2 (100%) · G2 at 75¢ · $16K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
G2
5
G2 100%
$16.0K
-$216.36
75.5¢ → 74.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralG2 at 75%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on G2. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR TrippleEX | G2avg 76¢ | $7.6K | $7.4K | -$150 | 57% 271-201 (472) |
VI vibing123 | G2avg 74.9¢ | $6.8K | $6.7K | -$39.16 | 57% 1358-1042 (2400) |
DA darkumbreon88 | G2avg 76¢ | $1.0K | $980.96 | -$19.75 | 65% 1581-847 (2428) |
 hasobidale | G2avg 75¢ | $810 | $804.6 | -$5.4 | 66% 195-99 (294) |
JI jiafan<$100 | G2avg 77¢ | $78.97 | $76.92 | -$2.05 | 60% 1365-893 (2258) |
Invested
$7,599.99
Value
$7.4K
PnL
-$150
Record
57%
271-201 (472)
Invested
$6,772.48
Value
$6.7K
PnL
-$39.16
Record
57%
1358-1042 (2400)
Invested
$1,000.71
Value
$980.96
PnL
-$19.75
Record
65%
1581-847 (2428)
hasobidaleInvested
$810
Value
$804.6
PnL
-$5.4
Record
66%
195-99 (294)
Invested
$78.97
Value
$76.92
PnL
-$2.05
Record
60%
1365-893 (2258)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.