Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)

1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold G2 (17%) · G2 at 69¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 25

Aurora Gaming32¢G268¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

G2 17%

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

$5.33

Research grade

NeutralG2 at 69%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Aurora Gaming32%

G269%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

G21 trader

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares7,490

Combined PnL-$52.22

Aurora Gaming5 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares8,949

Combined PnL+$57.55

G2 — 17%Aurora Gaming — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on G2. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAurora Gaming 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpAurora Gaming 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrAurora Gaming 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedAurora Gaming 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Aurora Gaming 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	G2avg 69.2¢	$5.2K	$5.1K	-$52.22	54% 100-86 (186)
JohnLKellyJrCTR	Aurora Gamingavg 31¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$23.51	53% 900-793 (1693)
relativesignificanceCTR	Aurora Gamingavg 30.9¢	$613.7	$624.84	+$11.14	57% 56-43 (99)
YY YYYYY999CTR	Aurora Gamingavg 30¢	$567.68	$596.06	+$28.38	49% 7148-7311 (14459)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100	Aurora Gamingavg 32.9¢	$95.73	$90.24	-$5.49	69% 4242-1916 (6158)
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Aurora Gamingavg 30¢	$24	$24.8	+$0	42% 1462-2002 (3464)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

Invested

$5,182.6

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$52.22

Record

54%

100-86 (186)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$1,457.72

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$23.51

Record

53%

900-793 (1693)

relativesignificanceCTR

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$613.7

Value

$624.84

PnL

+$11.14

Record

57%

56-43 (99)

YYYYY999CTR

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$567.68

Value

$596.06

PnL

+$28.38

Record

49%

7148-7311 (14459)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$95.73

Value

$90.24

PnL

-$5.49

Record

69%

4242-1916 (6158)

rocky42019CTR<$100

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$24

Value

$24.8

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

1462-2002 (3464)

Research grade

NeutralG2 at 69%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on G2. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAurora Gaming 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpAurora Gaming 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrAurora Gaming 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedAurora Gaming 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Aurora Gaming 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that G2 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.