Counter-Strike: G2 vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner

18 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold Aurora Gaming (60%) · Aurora Gaming at 72¢ · $141K held · ends Oct 25

G228¢Aurora Gaming72¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Aurora Gaming

Consensus Traders

Aurora Gaming 60%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$141.5K

Combined PnL

$-4.3K

Smart Money Entry

42.5¢ → 72¢

+69% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralAurora Gaming at 72%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Aurora Gaming

18 of 30 top traders (60%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

G228%

Aurora Gaming72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Aurora Gaming18 traders

Total Value$35.1K

Total Shares81,871

Combined PnL-$811.78

G212 traders

Total Value$26.3K

Total Shares52,154

Combined PnL$-3.5K

Aurora Gaming — 60%G2 — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	G2avg 63.1¢	$37.7K	$39.1K	+$1.4K	55% 43540-35826 (79366)
└ Aurora Gaming leg	Aurora Gamingavg 30.9¢	$11.8K	$27.6K	+$15.7K
└ G2 leg	G2avg 63.1¢	$25.9K	$11.5K	$-14.4K
cruzNBAARB<$100	G2avg 51¢	$26.0K	$23.8K	$-2.2K	42% 329-462 (791)
└ G2 leg	G2avg 51¢	$17.7K	$17.2K	-$508.29
└ Aurora Gaming leg	Aurora Gamingavg 63.4¢	$8.3K	$6.6K	$-1.7K
CA Catch8877ARB<$100	G2avg 51¢	$11.1K	$11.1K	-$27.58	49% 129-134 (263)
└ G2 leg	G2avg 51¢	$6.1K	$6.0K	-$180.58
└ Aurora Gaming leg	Aurora Gamingavg 49¢	$5.0K	$5.2K	+$153
TH THEHIGHLIFE	Aurora Gamingavg 48¢	$9.3K	$9.8K	+$484.59	54% 2340-2017 (4357)
MA MaktMan	Aurora Gamingavg 68¢	$7.1K	$6.5K	+$145.88	66% 21-11 (32)
AQ aqzfssqkqzbcbr1994CTR	G2avg 51¢	$6.0K	$5.8K	-$176.99	58% 567-418 (985)
KK KkunnCTR	G2avg 52¢	$5.9K	$5.6K	-$281.97	43% 196-261 (457)
DS dsasdaasCTR	G2avg 72¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	+$25	63% 271-156 (427)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	G2avg 68.8¢	$2.9K	$3.1K	+$190.34	53% 2376-2112 (4488)
AN AnibalAugustoSardinhaCTR	G2avg 37.7¢	$3.9K	$2.9K	-$996.21	56% 46-36 (82)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	G2avg 68.8¢	$2.3K	$2.7K	+$432.8	58% 16138-11779 (27917)
└ Aurora Gaming leg	Aurora Gamingavg 27.6¢	$1.1K	$1.7K	+$637.79
└ G2 leg	G2avg 68.8¢	$1.1K	$943.55	-$204.98
QI qidao001	Aurora Gamingavg 49¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$209.33	86% 1361-223 (1584)
FA facaigege	Aurora Gamingavg 51.6¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$49.63	48% 353-375 (728)
0X 0xc8a4337850Be801fcf6a0a2c257085895Cd8c97f-1790014603793	Aurora Gamingavg 48.7¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$71.68	55% 208-170 (378)
MA madkkeeCTR	G2avg 86¢	$3.3K	$1.9K	$-1.4K	66% 904-469 (1373)
PA panpidaras1ARB<$100	G2avg 73.8¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$171.42	54% 152-128 (280)
└ Aurora Gaming leg	Aurora Gamingavg 24.8¢	$583.77	$1.0K	+$441.6
└ G2 leg	G2avg 73.8¢	$1.2K	$882.18	-$270.18
PROBABILITYTRADER	Aurora Gamingavg 27.5¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$2.39	42% 1008-1368 (2376)
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569	Aurora Gamingavg 30¢	$1.1K	$1.8K	+$743.69	47% 778-894 (1672)
Blueberry1337	Aurora Gamingavg 58.2¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$230.69	58% 974-697 (1671)
Kangta8585	Aurora Gamingavg 49¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$36.73	55% 999-821 (1820)
AD adururu	Aurora Gamingavg 49¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	-$58.1	54% 289-246 (535)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Aurora Gamingavg 49¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	-$81.34	52% 216-198 (414)
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100	Aurora Gamingavg 52.3¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$65.81	54% 862-721 (1583)
└ Aurora Gaming leg	Aurora Gamingavg 52.3¢	$679.9	$617.5	-$62.5
└ G2 leg	G2avg 40.3¢	$424.42	$552.77	+$128.31
RE redvinnyCTR	G2avg 87¢	$13.8K	$1.1K	-$682.17	75% 1323-438 (1761)
DE delacsynzy1CTR	G2avg 51¢	$1.0K	$970.59	-$29.41	51% 399-383 (782)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$37,700.14

Value

$39.1K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

55%

43540-35826 (79366)

Both legs:

Aurora Gaming$11,821.530.9¢+$15.7K

G2$25,878.6463.1¢$-14.4K

cruzNBAARB<$100

Invested

$26,001.24

Value

$23.8K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

42%

329-462 (791)

Both legs:

G2$17,711.2951¢-$508.29

Aurora Gaming$8,289.9563.4¢$-1.7K

Catch8877ARB<$100

Invested

$11,137.56

Value

$11.1K

PnL

-$27.58

Record

49%

129-134 (263)

Both legs:

G2$6,139.5651¢-$180.58

Aurora Gaming$4,99849¢+$153

THEHIGHLIFE

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$9,304.1

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$484.59

Record

54%

2340-2017 (4357)

MaktMan

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$7,145.17

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$145.88

Record

66%

21-11 (32)

aqzfssqkqzbcbr1994CTR

Invested

$6,017.82

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$176.99

Record

58%

567-418 (985)

KkunnCTR

Invested

$5,865.08

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$281.97

Record

43%

196-261 (457)

dsasdaasCTR

Invested

$3,600

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$25

Record

63%

271-156 (427)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Invested

$2,889.67

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$190.34

Record

53%

2376-2112 (4488)

AnibalAugustoSardinhaCTR

Invested

$3,879.9

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$996.21

Record

56%

46-36 (82)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Invested

$2,251.8

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$432.8

Record

58%

16138-11779 (27917)

Both legs:

Aurora Gaming$1,103.2727.6¢+$637.79

G2$1,148.5368.8¢-$204.98

qidao001

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$2,279.57

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$209.33

Record

86%

1361-223 (1584)

facaigege

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$2,304.95

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$49.63

Record

48%

353-375 (728)

0xc8a4337850Be801fcf6a0a2c257085895Cd8c97f-1790014603793

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$1,937.32

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$71.68

Record

55%

208-170 (378)

madkkeeCTR

Invested

$3,343.68

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

66%

904-469 (1373)

panpidaras1ARB<$100

Invested

$1,736.13

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$171.42

Record

54%

152-128 (280)

Both legs:

Aurora Gaming$583.7724.8¢+$441.6

G2$1,152.3673.8¢-$270.18

PROBABILITYTRADER

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$1,895

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$2.39

Record

42%

1008-1368 (2376)

0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$1,091.48

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$743.69

Record

47%

778-894 (1672)

Blueberry1337

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$1,745.69

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$230.69

Record

58%

974-697 (1671)

Kangta8585

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$1,200

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$36.73

Record

55%

999-821 (1820)

adururu

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$1,138.75

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$58.1

Record

54%

289-246 (535)

oxe78sh4w98

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$1,138.75

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$81.34

Record

52%

216-198 (414)

TommyLeePeecaARB<$100

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$1,104.46

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$65.81

Record

54%

862-721 (1583)

Both legs:

Aurora Gaming$679.952.3¢-$62.5

G2$424.4240.3¢+$128.31

redvinnyCTR

Invested

$13,802.27

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$682.17

Record

75%

1323-438 (1761)

delacsynzy1CTR

Invested

$1,000

Value

$970.59

PnL

-$29.41

Record

51%

399-383 (782)

Research grade

NeutralAurora Gaming at 72%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Aurora Gaming

18 of 30 top traders (60%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Aurora Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.