Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Liquid - Map 1 Winner

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold FUT Esports (69%) · FUT Esports at 100¢ · $38K held · ends Oct 25

FUT Esports>99¢Liquid<1¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FUT Esports

Consensus Traders

FUT Esports 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$37.8K

Combined PnL

$446.84

Smart Money Entry

94¢ → 100¢

+6% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralFUT Esports at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FUT Esports

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

FUT Esports100%

Liquid0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FUT Esports9 traders

Total Value$31.5K

Total Shares32,286

Combined PnL+$95.22

Liquid4 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares13,308

Combined PnL+$351.62

FUT Esports — 69%Liquid — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
noreasapa	FUT Esportsavg 99.9¢	$18.0K	$18.0K	+$8.99	92% 3178-290 (3468)
Q7 q7662504	FUT Esportsavg 97.8¢	$8.2K	$8.2K	-$28	89% 315-40 (355)
JustADonkCTR	Liquidavg 52.7¢	$4.3K	$4.5K	+$186.67	55% 818-663 (1481)
RN1	FUT Esportsavg 78.7¢	$3.5K	$3.2K	-$283.67	55% 43123-35478 (78601)
BI BillBenter2026	FUT Esportsavg 57.5¢	$860.93	$1.2K	+$343.43	58% 16089-11745 (27834)
cruzNBACTR	Liquidavg 24.8¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$72.72	42% 326-451 (777)
PA panpidaras1ARB<$100	Liquidavg 7¢	$369.06	$415.92	+$46.86	55% 151-125 (276)
└ Liquid leg	Liquidavg 7¢	$264.3	$283.18	+$18.88
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 73¢	$104.76	$132.74	+$27.98
MA MaktMan	FUT Esportsavg 63¢	$347.24	$350.18	+$2.95	63% 17-10 (27)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	FUT Esportsavg 61¢	$241.9	$251.82	+$9.91	69% 4216-1907 (6123)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	FUT Esportsavg 73.4¢	$164.73	$180.58	+$15.84	53% 2356-2096 (4452)
CH chillhouse123	FUT Esportsavg 76.9¢	$127.19	$151.73	+$24.54	54% 2615-2235 (4850)
AR arbmonitorCTR	Liquidavg 9¢	$47.7	$140.45	+$92.75	45% 474-569 (1043)
forsenxd<$100	FUT Esportsavg 59¢	$15.96	$17.17	+$1.22	50% 555-556 (1111)
AO aomendushen008CTR<$100	Liquidavg 3¢	$6	$5.48	-$0.52	56% 801-634 (1435)

noreasapa

FUT Esports

Invested

$17,969.37

Value

$18.0K

PnL

+$8.99

Record

92%

3178-290 (3468)

q7662504

FUT Esports

Invested

$8,217.6

Value

$8.2K

PnL

-$28

Record

89%

315-40 (355)

JustADonkCTR

Liquid

Invested

$4,331.03

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$186.67

Record

55%

818-663 (1481)

RN1

FUT Esports

Invested

$3,481.25

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$283.67

Record

55%

43123-35478 (78601)

BillBenter2026

FUT Esports

Invested

$860.93

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$343.43

Record

58%

16089-11745 (27834)

cruzNBACTR

Liquid

Invested

$1,092.56

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$72.72

Record

42%

326-451 (777)

panpidaras1ARB<$100

Liquid

Invested

$369.06

Value

$415.92

PnL

+$46.86

Record

55%

151-125 (276)

Both legs:

Liquid$264.37¢+$18.88

FUT Esports$104.7673¢+$27.98

MaktMan

FUT Esports

Invested

$347.24

Value

$350.18

PnL

+$2.95

Record

63%

17-10 (27)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

FUT Esports

Invested

$241.9

Value

$251.82

PnL

+$9.91

Record

69%

4216-1907 (6123)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

FUT Esports

Invested

$164.73

Value

$180.58

PnL

+$15.84

Record

53%

2356-2096 (4452)

chillhouse123

FUT Esports

Invested

$127.19

Value

$151.73

PnL

+$24.54

Record

54%

2615-2235 (4850)

arbmonitorCTR

Liquid

Invested

$47.7

Value

$140.45

PnL

+$92.75

Record

45%

474-569 (1043)

forsenxd<$100

FUT Esports

Invested

$15.96

Value

$17.17

PnL

+$1.22

Record

50%

555-556 (1111)

aomendushen008CTR<$100

Liquid

Invested

Value

$5.48

PnL

-$0.52

Record

56%

801-634 (1435)

Research grade

NeutralFUT Esports at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Smart Money Signal

FUT Esports

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FUT Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.