Games Total: O/U 2.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 70¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
1 arb excluded
$3.6K
-$381.19
50¢ → 69.5¢
+39% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 70%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Underavg 50¢ | $2.5K | $2.3K | -$250 | 47% 1984-2215 (4199) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 50¢ | $1.0K | $900 | -$100 | 58% 31731-22975 (54706) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Underavg 50¢ | $250 | $225 | -$25 | 69% 4286-1924 (6210) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Overavg 63¢ | $235.6 | $212.08 | -$23.52 | 55% 43612-35879 (79491) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 48.9¢ | $114.1 | $110.33 | -$3.76 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 63¢ | $121.5 | $101.75 | -$19.75 | |
BA BAPEHUKCTR<$100 | Overavg 60¢ | $51.3 | $45.11 | -$6.19 | 51% 346-330 (676) |
Invested
$2,500
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$250
Record
47%
1984-2215 (4199)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,000
Value
$900
PnL
-$100
Record
58%
31731-22975 (54706)
Invested
$250
Value
$225
PnL
-$25
Record
69%
4286-1924 (6210)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$235.6
Value
$212.08
PnL
-$23.52
Record
55%
43612-35879 (79491)
Both legs:
Invested
$51.3
Value
$45.11
PnL
-$6.19
Record
51%
346-330 (676)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.