Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold FURIA, while the market favors Natus Vincere (100%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold FURIA (50%) · FURIA at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 25

FURIA<1¢Natus Vincere>99¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

FURIA

Consensus Traders

FURIA 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$37.63

Smart Money Entry

31.9¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidFURIA at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FURIA

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Natus Vincere 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

FURIA0%

Natus Vincere100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FURIA3 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares5,179

Combined PnL+$108.61

Natus Vincere3 traders

Total Value$654.97

Total Shares1,019

Combined PnL-$70.98

FURIA — 50%Natus Vincere — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on FURIA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Natus Vincere) and the top 1000 (2 on FURIA) disagree here.

whaleNatus Vincere 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrFURIA 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNatus Vincere 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000FURIA 50% · 2

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA RayayaCTR	FURIAavg 32¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$80	59% 993-680 (1673)
RN1ARB<$100	Natus Vincereavg 72¢	$465.61	$423.9	-$41.71	55% 43612-35879 (79491)
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 72¢	$350.49	$280	-$70.49
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 34¢	$115.12	$143.9	+$28.78
YY YYYYY999	Natus Vincereavg 68¢	$406.7	$412.68	+$5.98	49% 7156-7316 (14472)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR	FURIAavg 31.8¢	$371.36	$397.32	+$25.96	32% 5600-11641 (17241)
forsenxd	Natus Vincereavg 66¢	$300	$172.5	-$25.5	53% 866-768 (1634)
ZX zxc368	Natus Vincereavg 99.9¢	$121.25	$69.79	-$51.46	99% 9037-127 (9164)
AJ AJSVCTR<$100	FURIAavg 16¢	$1.6	$4.25	+$2.65	36% 12940-22677 (35617)

RayayaCTR

FURIA

Invested

$1,280

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$80

Record

59%

993-680 (1673)

RN1ARB<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$465.61

Value

$423.9

PnL

-$41.71

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

Both legs:

Natus Vincere$350.4972¢-$70.49

FURIA$115.1234¢+$28.78

YYYYY999

Natus Vincere

Invested

$406.7

Value

$412.68

PnL

+$5.98

Record

49%

7156-7316 (14472)

wokerjoesleeperCTR

FURIA

Invested

$371.36

Value

$397.32

PnL

+$25.96

Record

32%

5600-11641 (17241)

forsenxd

Natus Vincere

Invested

$300

Value

$172.5

PnL

-$25.5

Record

53%

866-768 (1634)

zxc368

Natus Vincere

Invested

$121.25

Value

$69.79

PnL

-$51.46

Record

99%

9037-127 (9164)

AJSVCTR<$100

FURIA

Invested

$1.6

Value

$4.25

PnL

+$2.65

Record

36%

12940-22677 (35617)

Research grade

AvoidFURIA at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

FURIA

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Natus Vincere 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on FURIA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Natus Vincere) and the top 1000 (2 on FURIA) disagree here.

whaleNatus Vincere 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrFURIA 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNatus Vincere 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000FURIA 50% · 2

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FURIA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.