Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner

13 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Natus Vincere (62%) · Natus Vincere at 100¢ · $87K held · ends Oct 25

FURIA<1¢Natus Vincere>99¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Natus Vincere

Consensus Traders

Natus Vincere 62%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$86.9K

Combined PnL

$-3.8K

Smart Money Entry

60.2¢ → 100¢

+66% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNatus Vincere at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Natus Vincere

13 of 21 top traders (62%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

FURIA0%

Natus Vincere100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Natus Vincere13 traders

Total Value$61.5K

Total Shares80,524

Combined PnL$-5.7K

FURIA8 traders

Total Value$12.3K

Total Shares24,472

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Natus Vincere — 62%FURIA — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Natus Vincereavg 67¢	$45.1K	$41.1K	$-4.0K	55% 43593-35871 (79464)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	FURIAavg 28.7¢	$6.4K	$7.9K	+$1.4K	58% 16152-11790 (27942)
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 28.7¢	$3.6K	$4.1K	+$415.78
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 49.6¢	$2.8K	$3.8K	+$1.0K
AN AnibalAugustoSardinhaCTR	FURIAavg 38.3¢	$5.4K	$7.9K	+$2.4K	55% 46-37 (83)
cruzNBA	Natus Vincereavg 61¢	$7.3K	$5.8K	$-1.5K	41% 330-467 (797)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554ARB<$100	Natus Vincereavg 56.8¢	$2.8K	$3.3K	+$528.98	53% 2379-2116 (4495)
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 56.8¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$301.29
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 27.1¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$227.68
0B 0x0b5e...9367	Natus Vincereavg 47¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$90	—
GE GeorgeRe	Natus Vincereavg 37.5¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$74.27	54% 1007-874 (1881)
Q7 q7662504	Natus Vincereavg 98¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$13.71	89% 325-40 (365)
DE delacsynzy1CTR	FURIAavg 53¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$56.19	51% 400-384 (784)
TO TommyLeePeeca	Natus Vincereavg 64.8¢	$3.1K	$1.8K	+$399.25	55% 865-722 (1587)
FA facaigegeARB<$100	FURIAavg 63¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$74.11	49% 355-375 (730)
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 63¢	$882	$945	+$63
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 32¢	$711.04	$722.15	+$11.11
UN Unknownpoluy	Natus Vincereavg 33¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$23.16	44% 74-95 (169)
0X 0xc8a4337850Be801fcf6a0a2c257085895Cd8c97f-1790014603793CTR	FURIAavg 40¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$57.01	55% 208-172 (380)
PA panpidaras1	Natus Vincereavg 55¢	$2.1K	$1.2K	-$650.55	54% 153-129 (282)
FE fengdubisheng117	Natus Vincereavg 60¢	$800	$766.74	-$33.26	33% 7-14 (21)
teardropsaidmynameCTR	FURIAavg 44¢	$500	$363.64	-$136.36	52% 400-371 (771)
PI PIPIZINCTR	FURIAavg 55¢	$300	$340.91	+$40.91	52% 368-345 (713)
latvian.demon	Natus Vincereavg 64¢	$400	$303.13	-$96.88	53% 545-480 (1025)
0X 0x7759a35ac38c416f21a661ea0a9ce206790d995fCTR	FURIAavg 63.3¢	$500	$291.45	-$100.69	74% 213-73 (286)
CH chillhouse123ARB<$100	FURIAavg 27.1¢	$1.3K	$274.24	-$268.76	54% 2713-2304 (5017)
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 67.3¢	$135.32	$189.99	+$51.03
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 27.1¢	$414.74	$84.25	-$319.79
0X 0x11e5d9276b80c28d2167dB68ae4CfF6d8E09337e-1767473324789	Natus Vincereavg 60¢	$228.99	$242.35	+$13.36	51% 143-140 (283)
GaoJin-GamblingGod	Natus Vincereavg 48.4¢	$207.96	$214.64	+$6.67	51% 502-487 (989)
forsenxd	Natus Vincereavg 46¢	$185.25	$195.32	+$10.07	53% 865-768 (1633)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	FURIAavg 35.9¢	$192.73	$29.51	-$163.22	59% 13939-9669 (23608)
AR arbmonitorCTR<$100	FURIAavg 16¢	$16.47	$12.87	-$3.6	45% 476-573 (1049)

RN1

Natus Vincere

Invested

$45,149.02

Value

$41.1K

PnL

$-4.0K

Record

55%

43593-35871 (79464)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

FURIA

Invested

$6,421.44

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

58%

16152-11790 (27942)

Both legs:

FURIA$3,646.6228.7¢+$415.78

Natus Vincere$2,774.8249.6¢+$1.0K

AnibalAugustoSardinhaCTR

FURIA

Invested

$5,448.34

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

55%

46-37 (83)

cruzNBA

Natus Vincere

Invested

$7,302.4

Value

$5.8K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

41%

330-467 (797)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554ARB<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,771.38

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$528.98

Record

53%

2379-2116 (4495)

Both legs:

Natus Vincere$1,527.1356.8¢+$301.29

FURIA$1,244.2527.1¢+$227.68

0x0b5e...9367

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,820.14

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$90

Record

—

GeorgeRe

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,714

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$74.27

Record

54%

1007-874 (1881)

q7662504

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,687.59

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$13.71

Record

89%

325-40 (365)

delacsynzy1CTR

FURIA

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$56.19

Record

51%

400-384 (784)

TommyLeePeeca

Natus Vincere

Invested

$3,107.63

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$399.25

Record

55%

865-722 (1587)

facaigegeARB<$100

FURIA

Invested

$1,593.04

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$74.11

Record

49%

355-375 (730)

Both legs:

FURIA$88263¢+$63

Natus Vincere$711.0432¢+$11.11

Unknownpoluy

Natus Vincere

Invested

$1,528.71

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$23.16

Record

44%

74-95 (169)

0xc8a4337850Be801fcf6a0a2c257085895Cd8c97f-1790014603793CTR

FURIA

Invested

$1,503.56

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$57.01

Record

55%

208-172 (380)

panpidaras1

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,079.54

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$650.55

Record

54%

153-129 (282)

fengdubisheng117

Natus Vincere

Invested

$800

Value

$766.74

PnL

-$33.26

Record

33%

7-14 (21)

teardropsaidmynameCTR

FURIA

Invested

$500

Value

$363.64

PnL

-$136.36

Record

52%

400-371 (771)

PIPIZINCTR

FURIA

Invested

$300

Value

$340.91

PnL

+$40.91

Record

52%

368-345 (713)

latvian.demon

Natus Vincere

Invested

$400

Value

$303.13

PnL

-$96.88

Record

53%

545-480 (1025)

0x7759a35ac38c416f21a661ea0a9ce206790d995fCTR

FURIA

Invested

$500

Value

$291.45

PnL

-$100.69

Record

74%

213-73 (286)

chillhouse123ARB<$100

FURIA

Invested

$1,257.7

Value

$274.24

PnL

-$268.76

Record

54%

2713-2304 (5017)

Both legs:

Natus Vincere$135.3267.3¢+$51.03

FURIA$414.7427.1¢-$319.79

0x11e5d9276b80c28d2167dB68ae4CfF6d8E09337e-1767473324789

Natus Vincere

Invested

$228.99

Value

$242.35

PnL

+$13.36

Record

51%

143-140 (283)

GaoJin-GamblingGod

Natus Vincere

Invested

$207.96

Value

$214.64

PnL

+$6.67

Record

51%

502-487 (989)

forsenxd

Natus Vincere

Invested

$185.25

Value

$195.32

PnL

+$10.07

Record

53%

865-768 (1633)

omnibus-076daaCTR

FURIA

Invested

$192.73

Value

$29.51

PnL

-$163.22

Record

59%

13939-9669 (23608)

arbmonitorCTR<$100

FURIA

Invested

$16.47

Value

$12.87

PnL

-$3.6

Record

45%

476-573 (1049)

Research grade

NeutralNatus Vincere at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Natus Vincere

13 of 21 top traders (62%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Natus Vincere wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.