Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold FURIA, while the market favors Natus Vincere (88%). 17 of 44 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage

17 of 44 top Polymarket traders hold FURIA (39%) · FURIA at 13¢ · $413K held · ends Oct 25

FURIA13¢Natus Vincere87¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

FURIA

Consensus Traders

FURIA 39%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$413.1K

Combined PnL

$19.4K

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 12.5¢

-75% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

AvoidFURIA at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FURIA

17 of 44 top traders (39%)Underdog side (market favors Natus Vincere 88%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

FURIA13%

Natus Vincere88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FURIA17 traders

Total Value$294.1K

Total Shares498,460

Combined PnL+$46.8K

Natus Vincere27 traders

Total Value$85.9K

Total Shares207,332

Combined PnL$-27.5K

FURIA — 39%Natus Vincere — 61%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on FURIA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNatus Vincere 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpFURIA 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNatus Vincere 71% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedNatus Vincere 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Natus Vincere 56% · 25

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LL lllllllIlllCTR	FURIAavg 57.2¢	$143.0K	$147.5K	+$4.5K	55% 238-196 (434)
JU juice-fruitCTR	FURIAavg 38¢	$33.9K	$52.7K	+$18.7K	63% 42-25 (67)
RN1ARB<$100	Natus Vincereavg 54¢	$26.8K	$28.6K	+$1.8K	55% 43612-35879 (79491)
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 38.1¢	$10.4K	$16.2K	+$5.7K
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 54¢	$16.4K	$12.4K	$-3.9K
VP VPenguinCTR	FURIAavg 37¢	$17.6K	$28.1K	+$10.5K	44% 755-951 (1706)
YY YYYYY999	Natus Vincereavg 43¢	$21.5K	$20.5K	$-1.0K	49% 7156-7316 (14472)
WI Wiretransferxyz	Natus Vincereavg 62.9¢	$28.3K	$18.4K	$-9.9K	54% 594-507 (1101)
0X 0xe2D0f0580716E47979206dcFF5220695e7967BbF-1763023416239CTR	FURIAavg 37.5¢	$10.4K	$16.4K	+$6.0K	41% 261-381 (642)
GO Gooooooollllllllll	Natus Vincereavg 62¢	$18.6K	$12.3K	$-6.3K	49% 916-945 (1861)
LlamaEnjoyerCTR	FURIAavg 38¢	$6.3K	$9.7K	+$3.5K	83% 2108-428 (2536)
JustADonkCTR	FURIAavg 57¢	$6.1K	$6.3K	-$376.25	55% 824-673 (1497)
BA Babooou	Natus Vincereavg 53.7¢	$8.0K	$6.1K	$-1.9K	52% 189-173 (362)
TR TrippleEXCTR	FURIAavg 57.5¢	$5.7K	$5.9K	-$98.33	57% 268-199 (467)
RA RayayaCTR	FURIAavg 47.5¢	$4.8K	$5.9K	+$1.2K	59% 993-680 (1673)
cs2.quantCTR	FURIAavg 48.5¢	$4.8K	$5.8K	+$1.0K	58% 64-47 (111)
VI vibing123	Natus Vincereavg 54.4¢	$6.6K	$4.9K	$-1.6K	57% 1289-990 (2279)
Nooserac	Natus Vincereavg 43¢	$4.3K	$4.1K	-$950	52% 5272-4847 (10119)
SatanishippieCTR	FURIAavg 60¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	-$63.47	48% 257-275 (532)
FE fengdubisheng117CTR	FURIAavg 38¢	$2.5K	$3.9K	+$1.4K	33% 7-14 (21)
RI RichiddCTR	FURIAavg 52.5¢	$3.1K	$3.5K	+$386.55	47% 44-50 (94)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Natus Vincereavg 60¢	$3.4K	$3.0K	-$341.6	58% 16155-11793 (27948)
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 45.6¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$349.96
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 60¢	$2.2K	$1.5K	-$691.56
KateBollinger	Natus Vincereavg 51.7¢	$3.6K	$2.9K	-$752.17	69% 1657-731 (2388)
ColdW	Natus Vincereavg 62¢	$3.1K	$2.0K	$-1.1K	61% 1905-1236 (3141)
Reformedx	Natus Vincereavg 62¢	$3.1K	$2.0K	$-1.1K	52% 713-649 (1362)
SE sentrio	Natus Vincereavg 62¢	$2.4K	$1.7K	-$699.88	49% 11007-11356 (22363)
HA Harmful-inclusion	Natus Vincereavg 43¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$80	56% 127-99 (226)

lllllllIlllCTR

FURIA

Invested

$142,999.99

Value

$147.5K

PnL

+$4.5K

Record

55%

238-196 (434)

juice-fruitCTR

FURIA

Invested

$33,912.87

Value

$52.7K

PnL

+$18.7K

Record

63%

42-25 (67)

RN1ARB<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$26,834.1

Value

$28.6K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

Both legs:

FURIA$10,447.0438.1¢+$5.7K

Natus Vincere$16,387.0554¢$-3.9K

VPenguinCTR

FURIA

Invested

$17,643.85

Value

$28.1K

PnL

+$10.5K

Record

44%

755-951 (1706)

YYYYY999

Natus Vincere

Invested

$21,500

Value

$20.5K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

49%

7156-7316 (14472)

Wiretransferxyz

Natus Vincere

Invested

$28,300

Value

$18.4K

PnL

$-9.9K

Record

54%

594-507 (1101)

0xe2D0f0580716E47979206dcFF5220695e7967BbF-1763023416239CTR

FURIA

Invested

$10,415.67

Value

$16.4K

PnL

+$6.0K

Record

41%

261-381 (642)

Gooooooollllllllll

Natus Vincere

Invested

$18,600

Value

$12.3K

PnL

$-6.3K

Record

49%

916-945 (1861)

LlamaEnjoyerCTR

FURIA

Invested

$6,270

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$3.5K

Record

83%

2108-428 (2536)

JustADonkCTR

FURIA

Invested

$6,127.5

Value

$6.3K

PnL

-$376.25

Record

55%

824-673 (1497)

Babooou

Natus Vincere

Invested

$8,049.57

Value

$6.1K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

52%

189-173 (362)

TrippleEXCTR

FURIA

Invested

$5,748.47

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$98.33

Record

57%

268-199 (467)

RayayaCTR

FURIA

Invested

$4,750

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

59%

993-680 (1673)

cs2.quantCTR

FURIA

Invested

$4,800

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

58%

64-47 (111)

vibing123

Natus Vincere

Invested

$6,566.91

Value

$4.9K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

57%

1289-990 (2279)

Nooserac

Natus Vincere

Invested

$4,300

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$950

Record

52%

5272-4847 (10119)

SatanishippieCTR

FURIA

Invested

$3,999.99

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$63.47

Record

48%

257-275 (532)

fengdubisheng117CTR

FURIA

Invested

$2,500

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

33%

7-14 (21)

RichiddCTR

FURIA

Invested

$3,099.98

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$386.55

Record

47%

44-50 (94)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$3,373.77

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$341.6

Record

58%

16155-11793 (27948)

Both legs:

FURIA$1,189.9445.6¢+$349.96

Natus Vincere$2,183.8360¢-$691.56

KateBollinger

Natus Vincere

Invested

$3,622.15

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$752.17

Record

69%

1657-731 (2388)

ColdW

Natus Vincere

Invested

$3,100

Value

$2.0K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

61%

1905-1236 (3141)

Reformedx

Natus Vincere

Invested

$3,100

Value

$2.0K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

52%

713-649 (1362)

sentrio

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,375.17

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$699.88

Record

49%

11007-11356 (22363)

Harmful-inclusion

Natus Vincere

Invested

$1,720

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$80

Record

56%

127-99 (226)

Research grade

AvoidFURIA at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

FURIA

17 of 44 top traders (39%)Underdog side (market favors Natus Vincere 88%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on FURIA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNatus Vincere 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpFURIA 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNatus Vincere 71% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedNatus Vincere 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Natus Vincere 56% · 25

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FURIA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance14.1%

12.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$610.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

710.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.