Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold FOKUS (60%) · FOKUS at 63¢ · $17K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
FOKUS
5
FOKUS 60%
$16.9K
$909.18
62.7¢ → 62.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralFOKUS at 63%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x29b52d98ac9ef9414b04164246c95BC63d7 | FOKUSavg 62.7¢ | $10.6K | $10.4K | -$202.37 | 54% 1593-1352 (2945) |
VI vibing123CTR | ex-Zero Tenacityavg 37¢ | $3.7K | $5.0K | +$1.3K | 57% 1401-1063 (2464) |
0X 0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494 | FOKUSavg 63¢ | $945 | $750 | -$195 | 55% 1215-984 (2199) |
BA BabooouCTR | ex-Zero Tenacityavg 37¢ | $727.85 | $737.68 | +$9.84 | 52% 193-176 (369) |
BE berlinskies<$100 | FOKUSavg 64¢ | $15 | $11.72 | -$3.28 | 57% 5415-4028 (9443) |
Invested
$10,647.72
Value
$10.4K
PnL
-$202.37
Record
54%
1593-1352 (2945)
Invested
$3,700
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
57%
1401-1063 (2464)
Invested
$945
Value
$750
PnL
-$195
Record
55%
1215-984 (2199)
Invested
$727.85
Value
$737.68
PnL
+$9.84
Record
52%
193-176 (369)
Invested
$15
Value
$11.72
PnL
-$3.28
Record
57%
5415-4028 (9443)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.