Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Falcons Force, while the market favors KUUSAMO.gg (78%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs KUUSAMO.gg - Map 2 Winner
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Falcons Force (33%) · Falcons Force at 22¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Falcons Force
3
Falcons Force 33%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
$-1.7K
Research grade
AvoidFalcons Force at 22%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors KUUSAMO.gg 78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN UnknownpoluyCTR | Falcons Forceavg 36.4¢ | $2.0K | $1.2K | $-1.8K | 44% 77-99 (176) |
 diceking | KUUSAMO.ggavg 54¢ | $103.89 | $150.06 | +$46.17 | 59% 268-188 (456) |
TE testBruno2 | KUUSAMO.ggavg 75.9¢ | $439.3 | $86.64 | +$47.37 | 57% 763-573 (1336) |
 poshposhARB<$100 | Falcons Forceavg 34.9¢ | $94.09 | $81.35 | -$12.75 | 44% 2201-2835 (5036) |
| └ KUUSAMO.gg leg | KUUSAMO.ggavg 60¢ | $32.83 | $42.68 | +$9.85 | |
| └ Falcons Force leg | Falcons Forceavg 34.9¢ | $61.26 | $38.66 | -$22.6 |
Invested
$2,000
Value
$1.2K
PnL
$-1.8K
Record
44%
77-99 (176)
dicekingInvested
$103.89
Value
$150.06
PnL
+$46.17
Record
59%
268-188 (456)
Invested
$439.3
Value
$86.64
PnL
+$47.37
Record
57%
763-573 (1336)
poshposhARB<$100Invested
$94.09
Value
$81.35
PnL
-$12.75
Record
44%
2201-2835 (5036)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.