Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs KUUSAMO.gg - Map 1 Winner

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Falcons Force (100%) · Falcons Force at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 26

Falcons Force>99¢KUUSAMO.gg<1¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Falcons Force

Consensus Traders

Falcons Force 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

70.9¢ → 100¢

+41% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralFalcons Force at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Falcons Force

4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Falcons Force100%

KUUSAMO.gg0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Falcons Force4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,832

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JohnLKellyJr	Falcons Forceavg 68.7¢	$3.6K	$1.3K	-$960.79	53% 1031-910 (1941)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846ARB<$100	KUUSAMO.ggavg 25¢	$222.4	$268.41	+$46.01	63% 25635-15377 (41012)
└ KUUSAMO.gg leg	KUUSAMO.ggavg 25¢	$122.66	$137.38	+$14.72
└ Falcons Force leg	Falcons Forceavg 54.8¢	$99.74	$131.03	+$31.29
TE testBruno2	Falcons Forceavg 77.7¢	$1.1K	$173.59	-$117.84	57% 763-573 (1336)
VP Vps1	Falcons Forceavg 99.9¢	$114.88	$114.94	+$0.06	95% 214-12 (226)
poshposhARB<$100	KUUSAMO.ggavg 22¢	$68.93	$104.96	+$36.03	44% 2201-2835 (5036)
└ KUUSAMO.gg leg	KUUSAMO.ggavg 22¢	$50.68	$81.88	+$31.2
└ Falcons Force leg	Falcons Forceavg 51¢	$18.25	$23.08	+$4.83
RL RLWG<$100	Falcons Forceavg 75¢	$7.5	$5	-$2.5	57% 6200-4745 (10945)

JohnLKellyJr

Falcons Force

Invested

$3,561.11

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$960.79

Record

53%

1031-910 (1941)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846ARB<$100

KUUSAMO.gg

Invested

$222.4

Value

$268.41

PnL

+$46.01

Record

63%

25635-15377 (41012)

Both legs:

KUUSAMO.gg$122.6625¢+$14.72

Falcons Force$99.7454.8¢+$31.29

testBruno2

Falcons Force

Invested

$1,055.16

Value

$173.59

PnL

-$117.84

Record

57%

763-573 (1336)

Vps1

Falcons Force

Invested

$114.88

Value

$114.94

PnL

+$0.06

Record

95%

214-12 (226)

poshposhARB<$100

KUUSAMO.gg

Invested

$68.93

Value

$104.96

PnL

+$36.03

Record

44%

2201-2835 (5036)

Both legs:

KUUSAMO.gg$50.6822¢+$31.2

Falcons Force$18.2551¢+$4.83

RLWG<$100

Falcons Force

Invested

$7.5

Value

PnL

-$2.5

Record

57%

6200-4745 (10945)

Research grade

NeutralFalcons Force at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Falcons Force

4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Falcons Force wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.