Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs KUUSAMO.gg (BO3) - European Pro League Series 11 Closed Qualifier Group D

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Falcons Force (67%) · Falcons Force at 62¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 26

Falcons Force62¢KUUSAMO.gg38¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Falcons Force

Consensus Traders

Falcons Force 67%

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

$-4.3K

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 61.5¢

+16% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralFalcons Force at 62%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Falcons Force

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Falcons Force62%

KUUSAMO.gg39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

KUUSAMO.gg3 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares6,470

Combined PnL+$931.34

Falcons Force6 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares11,480

Combined PnL$-5.2K

KUUSAMO.gg — 33%Falcons Force — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
puntobigbossCTR	KUUSAMO.ggavg 55.3¢	$1.8K	$2.3K	+$465.42	68% 63-30 (93)
UN Unknownpoluy	Falcons Forceavg 47.9¢	$2.5K	$1.9K	-$508.39	44% 77-99 (176)
JohnLKellyJr	Falcons Forceavg 65.3¢	$9.8K	$1.6K	$-4.9K	53% 1031-910 (1941)
dicekingCTR	KUUSAMO.ggavg 55¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$140	59% 268-188 (456)
poshposh	Falcons Forceavg 55.3¢	$757	$838.78	+$81.78	44% 2201-2835 (5036)
LE legitgameCTR	KUUSAMO.ggavg 23.8¢	$286.08	$612	+$325.92	57% 212-160 (372)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Falcons Forceavg 51.6¢	$494.19	$363.87	-$130.32	63% 25635-15377 (41012)
OM omnibus-076daa	Falcons Forceavg 31.6¢	$113.34	$254.94	+$141.6	49% 17082-17463 (34545)
TE testBruno2	Falcons Forceavg 28.2¢	$209.11	$249.39	+$132.89	57% 763-573 (1336)

puntobigbossCTR

KUUSAMO.gg

Invested

$1,807.35

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$465.42

Record

68%

63-30 (93)

Unknownpoluy

Falcons Force

Invested

$2,453.67

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$508.39

Record

44%

77-99 (176)

JohnLKellyJr

Falcons Force

Invested

$9,789.05

Value

$1.6K

PnL

$-4.9K

Record

53%

1031-910 (1941)

dicekingCTR

KUUSAMO.gg

Invested

$1,099.99

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$140

Record

59%

268-188 (456)

poshposh

Falcons Force

Invested

$757

Value

$838.78

PnL

+$81.78

Record

44%

2201-2835 (5036)

legitgameCTR

KUUSAMO.gg

Invested

$286.08

Value

$612

PnL

+$325.92

Record

57%

212-160 (372)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Falcons Force

Invested

$494.19

Value

$363.87

PnL

-$130.32

Record

63%

25635-15377 (41012)

omnibus-076daa

Falcons Force

Invested

$113.34

Value

$254.94

PnL

+$141.6

Record

49%

17082-17463 (34545)

testBruno2

Falcons Force

Invested

$209.11

Value

$249.39

PnL

+$132.89

Record

57%

763-573 (1336)

Research grade

NeutralFalcons Force at 62%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Falcons Force

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Falcons Force wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.