Counter-Strike: Envy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Tesla Cup Group B

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold GamerLegion (50%) · GamerLegion at 56¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 28

Envy44¢GamerLegion56¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

GamerLegion

Consensus Traders

GamerLegion 50%

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

-$0.82

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 55.5¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralGamerLegion at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

GamerLegion

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Envy44%

GamerLegion56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

GamerLegion2 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares9,069

Combined PnL+$135.34

Envy2 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares10,025

Combined PnL-$136.16

GamerLegion — 50%Envy — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	GamerLegionavg 54¢	$4.9K	$5.0K	+$135	53% 1459-1318 (2777)
JO JohnnyWinsCTR	Envyavg 46¢	$4.2K	$4.0K	-$134.77	42% 111-151 (262)
VeryLucky888CTR	Envyavg 44.6¢	$436.97	$435.57	-$1.39	58% 37344-27188 (64532)
l0wkirkenuinely<$100	GamerLegionavg 55¢	$37.7	$38.05	+$0.34	57% 188-144 (332)

vibing123

GamerLegion

Invested

$4,860

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$135

Record

53%

1459-1318 (2777)

JohnnyWinsCTR

Envy

Invested

$4,160.54

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$134.77

Record

42%

111-151 (262)

VeryLucky888CTR

Envy

Invested

$436.97

Value

$435.57

PnL

-$1.39

Record

58%

37344-27188 (64532)

l0wkirkenuinely<$100

GamerLegion

Invested

$37.7

Value

$38.05

PnL

+$0.34

Record

57%

188-144 (332)

Research grade

NeutralGamerLegion at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

GamerLegion

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that GamerLegion wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.