Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nemiga, while the market favors BetBoom Team (79%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Nemiga (+1.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Nemiga (44%) · Nemiga at 21¢ · $10K held · ends Oct 25

BetBoom Team79¢Nemiga21¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nemiga

Consensus Traders

Nemiga 44%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Entry

65.1¢ → 21¢

-68% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNemiga at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors BetBoom Team 79%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

BetBoom Team79%

Nemiga21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nemiga4 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares11,164

Combined PnL$-2.1K

BetBoom Team5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares6,269

Combined PnL+$480.52

Nemiga — 44%BetBoom Team — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Nemiga. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on BetBoom Team) and the top 1000 (4 on Nemiga) disagree here.

whaleBetBoom Team 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpBetBoom Team 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBetBoom Team 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedBetBoom Team 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Nemiga 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	Nemigaavg 67.3¢	$9.0K	$3.8K	$-2.2K	54% 100-86 (186)
RN1ARB<$100	BetBoom Teamavg 58.2¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$211.29	55% 43396-35692 (79088)
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 35.6¢	$937.84	$1.6K	+$695.71
└ BetBoom Team leg	BetBoom Teamavg 58.2¢	$1.4K	$909.77	-$484.42
pup1	BetBoom Teamavg 33.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$334.94	46% 1944-2289 (4233)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Nemigaavg 66.5¢	$971.83	$905.91	-$65.92	65% 1525-819 (2344)
WO wokerjoesleeper	BetBoom Teamavg 34¢	$510	$570	+$60	32% 5594-11640 (17234)
ReformedxCTR	Nemigaavg 34¢	$228.82	$417.26	+$188.44	52% 701-646 (1347)
YY YYYYY999	BetBoom Teamavg 33¢	$348.14	$400.89	+$52.75	49% 7148-7311 (14459)
relativesignificanceARB<$100	BetBoom Teamavg 32¢	$194.62	$323.35	+$86.73	57% 56-43 (99)
└ BetBoom Team leg	BetBoom Teamavg 32¢	$165.34	$196.34	+$136.92
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 66¢	$135.2	$127.01	-$50.19
AS astapzippo<$100	BetBoom Teamavg 34¢	$47.7	$80.56	+$32.86	58% 1910-1391 (3301)
AJ AJSVCTR<$100	Nemigaavg 61.1¢	$33.6	$34.1	+$0.5	36% 12837-22501 (35338)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100	BetBoom Teamavg 34¢	$0.62	$0.69	-$0.03	69% 4242-1916 (6158)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

Nemiga

Invested

$8,974.63

Value

$3.8K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

54%

100-86 (186)

RN1ARB<$100

BetBoom Team

Invested

$2,332.03

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$211.29

Record

55%

43396-35692 (79088)

Both legs:

Nemiga$937.8435.6¢+$695.71

BetBoom Team$1,394.1958.2¢-$484.42

pup1

BetBoom Team

Invested

$1,340.27

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$334.94

Record

46%

1944-2289 (4233)

darkumbreon88CTR

Nemiga

Invested

$971.83

Value

$905.91

PnL

-$65.92

Record

65%

1525-819 (2344)

wokerjoesleeper

BetBoom Team

Invested

$510

Value

$570

PnL

+$60

Record

32%

5594-11640 (17234)

ReformedxCTR

Nemiga

Invested

$228.82

Value

$417.26

PnL

+$188.44

Record

52%

701-646 (1347)

YYYYY999

BetBoom Team

Invested

$348.14

Value

$400.89

PnL

+$52.75

Record

49%

7148-7311 (14459)

relativesignificanceARB<$100

BetBoom Team

Invested

$194.62

Value

$323.35

PnL

+$86.73

Record

57%

56-43 (99)

Both legs:

BetBoom Team$165.3432¢+$136.92

Nemiga$135.266¢-$50.19

astapzippo<$100

BetBoom Team

Invested

$47.7

Value

$80.56

PnL

+$32.86

Record

58%

1910-1391 (3301)

AJSVCTR<$100

Nemiga

Invested

$33.6

Value

$34.1

PnL

+$0.5

Record

36%

12837-22501 (35338)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100

BetBoom Team

Invested

$0.62

Value

$0.69

PnL

-$0.03

Record

69%

4242-1916 (6158)

Research grade

AvoidNemiga at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors BetBoom Team 79%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Nemiga. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on BetBoom Team) and the top 1000 (4 on Nemiga) disagree here.

whaleBetBoom Team 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpBetBoom Team 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBetBoom Team 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedBetBoom Team 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Nemiga 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nemiga wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.9%

21.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$337.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

437.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.