Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Games Total: O/U 2.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 48¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$1.2K
$58.37
50.1¢ → 48¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 48%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 forsenxdCTR | Underavg 50¢ | $745 | $797.15 | +$52.15 | 53% 1014-882 (1896) |
 StudyPrediction | Overavg 47¢ | $228.47 | $226.04 | -$2.43 | 53% 4284-3785 (8069) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 51¢ | $130.08 | $136.46 | +$6.38 | 58% 37579-27344 (64923) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $16.15 | $17.63 | +$1.48 | 61% 8644-5579 (14223) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $8.65 | $9.44 | +$0.79 | 54% 51866-43791 (95657) |
forsenxdCTRInvested
$745
Value
$797.15
PnL
+$52.15
Record
53%
1014-882 (1896)
StudyPredictionInvested
$228.47
Value
$226.04
PnL
-$2.43
Record
53%
4284-3785 (8069)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$130.08
Value
$136.46
PnL
+$6.38
Record
58%
37579-27344 (64923)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$16.15
Value
$17.63
PnL
+$1.48
Record
61%
8644-5579 (14223)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$8.65
Value
$9.44
PnL
+$0.79
Record
54%
51866-43791 (95657)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.