Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Natus Vincere (50%) · Natus Vincere at 63¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 26

BetBoom Team38¢Natus Vincere62¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Natus Vincere

Consensus Traders

Natus Vincere 50%

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

$12.33

Smart Money Entry

60.8¢ → 62.5¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNatus Vincere at 63%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Natus Vincere

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

BetBoom Team38%

Natus Vincere63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Natus Vincere4 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares8,800

Combined PnL+$81.01

BetBoom Team4 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares6,382

Combined PnL-$68.69

Natus Vincere — 50%BetBoom Team — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Natus Vincere. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNatus Vincere 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNatus Vincere 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Natus Vincere 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
itwasawholething	Natus Vincereavg 60.6¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$37.61	60% 44-29 (73)
relativesignificanceCTR	BetBoom Teamavg 42¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$77.82	58% 69-49 (118)
TR TrippleEX	Natus Vincereavg 62¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$11.55	58% 271-200 (471)
WI Wiretransferxyz	Natus Vincereavg 60¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$32.65	54% 621-534 (1155)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	BetBoom Teamavg 38¢	$380	$390	+$10	57% 4546-3373 (7919)
MA manoamano<$100	Natus Vincereavg 62¢	$49.11	$48.32	-$0.79	69% 402-182 (584)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	BetBoom Teamavg 38¢	$44.4	$43.82	-$0.58	49% 11171-11503 (22674)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	BetBoom Teamavg 38¢	$21.61	$21.33	-$0.28	59% 14319-9905 (24224)

itwasawholething

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,566.13

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$37.61

Record

60%

44-29 (73)

relativesignificanceCTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$2,187.05

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$77.82

Record

58%

69-49 (118)

TrippleEX

Natus Vincere

Invested

$1,432.35

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$11.55

Record

58%

271-200 (471)

Wiretransferxyz

Natus Vincere

Invested

$1,305.92

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$32.65

Record

54%

621-534 (1155)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$380

Value

$390

PnL

+$10

Record

57%

4546-3373 (7919)

manoamano<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$49.11

Value

$48.32

PnL

-$0.79

Record

69%

402-182 (584)

sentrioCTR<$100

BetBoom Team

Invested

$44.4

Value

$43.82

PnL

-$0.58

Record

49%

11171-11503 (22674)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

BetBoom Team

Invested

$21.61

Value

$21.33

PnL

-$0.28

Record

59%

14319-9905 (24224)

Research grade

NeutralNatus Vincere at 63%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Natus Vincere

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Natus Vincere. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNatus Vincere 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNatus Vincere 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Natus Vincere 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Natus Vincere wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.