Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold K27, while the market favors B8 (62%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Counter-Strike: B8 vs K27 (BO3) - Tesla Cup Group A
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold K27 (60%) · K27 at 39¢ · $19K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
K27
5
K27 60%
$18.6K
$9.34
40.4¢ → 38.5¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralK27 at 39%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors B8 62%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WI Wiretransferxyz | B8avg 59.8¢ | $9.1K | $9.3K | +$252.98 | 54% 671-573 (1244) |
VI vibing123CTR | K27avg 40.9¢ | $5.3K | $5.0K | -$309.36 | 57% 1401-1063 (2464) |
HU humbleboyCTR | K27avg 40¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | +$41 | 55% 456-376 (832) |
AC acorpCTR | K27avg 39¢ | $704.34 | $731.43 | +$27.09 | 49% 578-600 (1178) |
MA manoamano | B8avg 62¢ | $147.31 | $144.93 | -$2.38 | 51% 412-395 (807) |
Invested
$9,093.99
Value
$9.3K
PnL
+$252.98
Record
54%
671-573 (1244)
Invested
$5,337.74
Value
$5.0K
PnL
-$309.36
Record
57%
1401-1063 (2464)
Invested
$3,280
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$41
Record
55%
456-376 (832)
Invested
$704.34
Value
$731.43
PnL
+$27.09
Record
49%
578-600 (1178)
Invested
$147.31
Value
$144.93
PnL
-$2.38
Record
51%
412-395 (807)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.