Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold fnatic, while the market favors Astralis (55%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Counter-Strike: Astralis vs fnatic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold fnatic (60%) · fnatic at 45¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 27

Astralis55¢fnatic45¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

fnatic

Consensus Traders

fnatic 60%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$36.21

Smart Money Entry

43¢ → 45¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

Neutralfnatic at 45%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

fnatic

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Astralis 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Astralis55%

fnatic45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

fnatic3 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares6,738

Combined PnL+$33.31

Astralis2 traders

Total Value$882.82

Total Shares1,539

Combined PnL+$2.9

fnatic — 60%Astralis — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO JohnnyWinsCTR	fnaticavg 43¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$29.08	42% 111-154 (265)
relativesignificance	Astralisavg 56.9¢	$520.62	$539.59	+$18.97	59% 81-57 (138)
HU humbleboyCTR	fnaticavg 43¢	$364.03	$368.26	+$4.23	54% 485-413 (898)
OM omnibus-076daa	Astralisavg 57.6¢	$359.3	$343.22	-$16.08	49% 18089-18501 (36590)
VI vibing123CTR<$100	fnaticavg 41¢	$30.93	$30.93	-$0	52% 1506-1390 (2896)

JohnnyWinsCTR

fnatic

Invested

$2,500.85

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$29.08

Record

42%

111-154 (265)

relativesignificance

Astralis

Invested

$520.62

Value

$539.59

PnL

+$18.97

Record

59%

81-57 (138)

humbleboyCTR

fnatic

Invested

$364.03

Value

$368.26

PnL

+$4.23

Record

54%

485-413 (898)

omnibus-076daa

Astralis

Invested

$359.3

Value

$343.22

PnL

-$16.08

Record

49%

18089-18501 (36590)

vibing123CTR<$100

fnatic

Invested

$30.93

Value

$30.93

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

1506-1390 (2896)

Research grade

Neutralfnatic at 45%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

fnatic

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Astralis 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that fnatic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.2%

45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$111.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

211.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.