Counter-Strike: Alliance vs FaZe (BO3) - Tesla Cup Group A
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold FaZe (60%) · FaZe at 69¢ · $15K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
FaZe
5
FaZe 60%
$14.9K
-$137.86
67.4¢ → 68.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralFaZe at 69%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WI Wiretransferxyz | FaZeavg 67¢ | $8.8K | $8.5K | -$262.17 | 53% 723-633 (1356) |
VI vibing123CTR | Allianceavg 33¢ | $4.0K | $4.2K | +$240.02 | 52% 1512-1401 (2913) |
RA Rayaya | FaZeavg 69¢ | $2.1K | $1.9K | -$120 | 60% 1143-752 (1895) |
MA manoamano<$100 | FaZeavg 69¢ | $98.56 | $92.85 | -$5.71 | 51% 426-412 (838) |
LU LucasCosta.CTR<$100 | Allianceavg 31¢ | $77.5 | $87.5 | +$10 | 41% 321-467 (788) |
Invested
$8,782.55
Value
$8.5K
PnL
-$262.17
Record
53%
723-633 (1356)
Invested
$3,960.25
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$240.02
Record
52%
1512-1401 (2913)
Invested
$2,070
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$120
Record
60%
1143-752 (1895)
Invested
$98.56
Value
$92.85
PnL
-$5.71
Record
51%
426-412 (838)
Invested
$77.5
Value
$87.5
PnL
+$10
Record
41%
321-467 (788)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.