Counter-Strike: Acend vs UNiTY esports - Map 2 Winner

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold UNiTY esports (75%) · UNiTY esports at 78¢ · $181 held · ends Oct 25

Acend22¢UNiTY esports78¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

UNiTY esports

Consensus Traders

UNiTY esports 75%

Total Value

$180.77

Combined PnL

$22.3

Smart Money Entry

69.8¢ → 77.8¢

+11% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUNiTY esports at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UNiTY esports

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Acend22%

UNiTY esports78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UNiTY esports3 traders

Total Value$171.25

Total Shares210

Combined PnL+$22.3

Acend1 trader

Total Value$9.52

Total Shares21

Combined PnL+$0

UNiTY esports — 75%Acend — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
fidelis1	UNiTY esportsavg 70.2¢	$120.41	$141.45	+$21.03	59% 152-107 (259)
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569<$100	UNiTY esportsavg 77.8¢	$19.45	$19.45	+$0	46% 765-885 (1650)
diceking<$100	UNiTY esportsavg 50¢	$6.66	$10.36	+$1.26	58% 245-174 (419)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Acendavg 44.3¢	$9.52	$9.52	+$0	63% 2580-1546 (4126)

fidelis1

UNiTY esports

Invested

$120.41

Value

$141.45

PnL

+$21.03

Record

59%

152-107 (259)

0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569<$100

UNiTY esports

Invested

$19.45

Value

$19.45

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

765-885 (1650)

diceking<$100

UNiTY esports

Invested

$6.66

Value

$10.36

PnL

+$1.26

Record

58%

245-174 (419)

shiifooCTR<$100

Acend

Invested

$9.52

Value

$9.52

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

2580-1546 (4126)

Research grade

NeutralUNiTY esports at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

UNiTY esports

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UNiTY esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.6%

77.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.