Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold UNiTY esports, while the market favors Acend (68%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Counter-Strike: Acend vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold UNiTY esports (25%) · UNiTY esports at 32¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
UNiTY esports
4
UNiTY esports 25%
$1.3K
$203.58
Research grade
NeutralUNiTY esports at 32%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Acend 68%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on UNiTY esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 dicekingCTR | UNiTY esportsavg 51.4¢ | $931.68 | $892.27 | -$39.41 | 58% 245-174 (419) |
SH shiifoo | Acendavg 12.3¢ | $91.06 | $349.6 | +$258.54 | 63% 2580-1546 (4126) |
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569<$100 | Acendavg 29.7¢ | $20.8 | $14 | -$6.8 | 46% 765-885 (1650) |
US User7429<$100 | Acendavg 36¢ | $30 | $9 | -$8.75 | 57% 5893-4406 (10299) |
dicekingCTRInvested
$931.68
Value
$892.27
PnL
-$39.41
Record
58%
245-174 (419)
Invested
$91.06
Value
$349.6
PnL
+$258.54
Record
63%
2580-1546 (4126)
Invested
$20.8
Value
$14
PnL
-$6.8
Record
46%
765-885 (1650)
Invested
$30
Value
$9
PnL
-$8.75
Record
57%
5893-4406 (10299)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.