Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Acend, while the market favors INOX Division (75%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Acend vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #11 Playoffs

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Acend (50%) · Acend at 26¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 25

Acend26¢INOX Division74¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Acend

Consensus Traders

Acend 50%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$26.25

Smart Money Entry

44.9¢ → 25.5¢

-43% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidAcend at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Acend

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors INOX Division 75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Acend26%

INOX Division75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Acend4 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,251

Combined PnL+$13.29

INOX Division4 traders

Total Value$945.42

Total Shares1,735

Combined PnL-$39.53

Acend — 50%INOX Division — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
dicekingCTR	Acendavg 46.3¢	$783.05	$769.83	-$13.22	58% 245-174 (419)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	INOX Divisionavg 59.7¢	$529.45	$483.12	-$46.33	53% 100-87 (187)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	INOX Divisionavg 54¢	$269.99	$272.49	+$2.5	63% 22547-13309 (35856)
GT gt7238CTR	Acendavg 41.5¢	$216.4	$237.28	+$20.88	45% 519-636 (1155)
AN anyjezz	INOX Divisionavg 53¢	$176.39	$181.39	+$4.99	51% 421-399 (820)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Acendavg 22¢	$5.2	$10.75	+$5.55	53% 12210-10943 (23153)
AJ AJSV<$100	INOX Divisionavg 59¢	$9.12	$8.43	-$0.7	36% 12900-22608 (35508)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Acendavg 45¢	$6.12	$6.19	+$0.07	68% 31050-14947 (45997)

dicekingCTR

Acend

Invested

$783.05

Value

$769.83

PnL

-$13.22

Record

58%

245-174 (419)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

INOX Division

Invested

$529.45

Value

$483.12

PnL

-$46.33

Record

53%

100-87 (187)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

INOX Division

Invested

$269.99

Value

$272.49

PnL

+$2.5

Record

63%

22547-13309 (35856)

gt7238CTR

Acend

Invested

$216.4

Value

$237.28

PnL

+$20.88

Record

45%

519-636 (1155)

anyjezz

INOX Division

Invested

$176.39

Value

$181.39

PnL

+$4.99

Record

51%

421-399 (820)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Acend

Invested

$5.2

Value

$10.75

PnL

+$5.55

Record

53%

12210-10943 (23153)

AJSV<$100

INOX Division

Invested

$9.12

Value

$8.43

PnL

-$0.7

Record

36%

12900-22608 (35508)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Acend

Invested

$6.12

Value

$6.19

PnL

+$0.07

Record

68%

31050-14947 (45997)

Research grade

AvoidAcend at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Acend

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors INOX Division 75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Acend wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.5%

25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$263.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

364.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.