Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5)
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold 9z (20%) · 9z at 51¢ · $29K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
9z
5
9z 20%
$28.9K
$189.9
Research grade
Neutral9z at 51%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on 9z. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 JohnLKellyJr | 9zavg 50.3¢ | $15.3K | $15.3K | +$70.2 | 54% 1002-863 (1865) |
 relativesignificanceCTR | TYLOOavg 49.4¢ | $7.4K | $7.5K | +$85.41 | 59% 71-50 (121) |
AC acorpCTR | TYLOOavg 49¢ | $4.3K | $4.4K | +$44.3 | 49% 570-585 (1155) |
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR | TYLOOavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$15.01 | 53% 106-93 (199) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | TYLOOavg 49¢ | $245 | $250 | +$5 | 57% 4739-3553 (8292) |
JohnLKellyJrInvested
$15,250.21
Value
$15.3K
PnL
+$70.2
Record
54%
1002-863 (1865)
relativesignificanceCTRInvested
$7,373.61
Value
$7.5K
PnL
+$85.41
Record
59%
71-50 (121)
Invested
$4,341.2
Value
$4.4K
PnL
+$44.3
Record
49%
570-585 (1155)
Invested
$1,500.55
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$15.01
Record
53%
106-93 (199)
Invested
$245
Value
$250
PnL
+$5
Record
57%
4739-3553 (8292)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.