Counter-Strike: 9z vs TYLOO - Map 2 Winner

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold 9z (50%) · 9z at 85¢ · $16K held · ends Oct 26

9z85¢TYLOO15¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

9z 50%

Total Value

$16.4K

Combined PnL

-$27.08

Smart Money Entry

83.4¢ → 84.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

Neutral9z at 85%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

9z85%

TYLOO16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

9z3 traders

Total Value$15.8K

Total Shares19,092

Combined PnL-$124.46

TYLOO3 traders

Total Value$565.36

Total Shares3,049

Combined PnL+$97.38

9z — 50%TYLOO — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AQ aqzfssqkqzbcbr1994	9zavg 85¢	$9.1K	$8.8K	-$376.47	57% 608-461 (1069)
JohnLKellyJr	9zavg 81.7¢	$6.5K	$6.8K	+$224.61	53% 1031-910 (1941)
RN1CTR	TYLOOavg 15.2¢	$459.71	$558.67	+$98.96	54% 50818-42773 (93591)
Basquetipster	9zavg 73¢	$250	$277.4	+$27.4	69% 1609-728 (2337)
poshposhCTR<$100	TYLOOavg 28¢	$6.72	$5.76	-$0.96	44% 2201-2835 (5036)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR<$100	TYLOOavg 31¢	$1.55	$0.93	-$0.63	53% 106-93 (199)

aqzfssqkqzbcbr1994

Invested

$9,142.8

Value

$8.8K

PnL

-$376.47

Record

57%

608-461 (1069)

JohnLKellyJr

Invested

$6,529.48

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$224.61

Record

53%

1031-910 (1941)

RN1CTR

TYLOO

Invested

$459.71

Value

$558.67

PnL

+$98.96

Record

54%

50818-42773 (93591)

Basquetipster

Invested

$250

Value

$277.4

PnL

+$27.4

Record

69%

1609-728 (2337)

poshposhCTR<$100

TYLOO

Invested

$6.72

Value

$5.76

PnL

-$0.96

Record

44%

2201-2835 (5036)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR<$100

TYLOO

Invested

$1.55

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$0.63

Record

53%

106-93 (199)

Research grade

Neutral9z at 85%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 9z wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.