Counter-Strike: 9z vs TYLOO - Map 1 Winner

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold 9z (64%) · 9z at 92¢ · $44K held · ends Oct 26

9z92¢TYLOO8¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

9z 64%

Total Value

$43.6K

Combined PnL

$2.1K

Smart Money Entry

81.7¢ → 91.5¢

+12% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

Neutral9z at 92%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

9z92%

TYLOO8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

9z9 traders

Total Value$43.2K

Total Shares46,210

Combined PnL+$2.2K

TYLOO5 traders

Total Value$458.91

Total Shares2,329

Combined PnL-$41.33

9z — 64%TYLOO — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on 9z. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharp9z 100% · 1

Aligned

ctr9z 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-picked9z 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 10009z 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AQ aqzfssqkqzbcbr1994	9zavg 75¢	$12.1K	$14.6K	+$2.5K	57% 608-461 (1069)
JohnLKellyJr	9zavg 76.8¢	$8.3K	$10.3K	+$181.71	53% 1031-910 (1941)
0X 0x246bE8A4e3805E318801B79AD1Ee1268d5fbFB5b-1773192326048	9zavg 92¢	$8.0K	$7.8K	-$215.27	69% 226-101 (327)
RN1	9zavg 83.7¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	+$66.73	54% 50818-42773 (93591)
arjennnnn	9zavg 94.9¢	$3.8K	$3.6K	-$194.55	72% 792-312 (1104)
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540	9zavg 78.6¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$1.69	53% 89-79 (168)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	9zavg 89¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$157.5	51% 1086-1046 (2132)
0X 0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8	9zavg 80¢	$250	$245.31	-$4.69	56% 70-55 (125)
GT gt7238CTR	TYLOOavg 18.2¢	$150.41	$177.57	+$27.16	45% 540-656 (1196)
SP sportteryqqCTR	TYLOOavg 22¢	$128	$125.09	-$2.91	40% 403-604 (1007)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	TYLOOavg 33¢	$184.47	$120.19	-$64.28	53% 106-93 (199)
Basquetipster<$100	9zavg 66¢	$38.37	$45.35	+$6.98	69% 1609-728 (2337)
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR<$100	TYLOOavg 10¢	$23.7	$23.58	-$0.12	46% 824-978 (1802)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	TYLOOavg 10.9¢	$13.67	$12.49	-$1.18	49% 17082-17463 (34545)

aqzfssqkqzbcbr1994

Invested

$12,062.88

Value

$14.6K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

57%

608-461 (1069)

JohnLKellyJr

Invested

$8,302.06

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$181.71

Record

53%

1031-910 (1941)

0x246bE8A4e3805E318801B79AD1Ee1268d5fbFB5b-1773192326048

Invested

$8,000

Value

$7.8K

PnL

-$215.27

Record

69%

226-101 (327)

RN1

Invested

$4,074.43

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$66.73

Record

54%

50818-42773 (93591)

arjennnnn

Invested

$3,798.24

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$194.55

Record

72%

792-312 (1104)

0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540

Invested

$1,306.55

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$1.69

Record

53%

89-79 (168)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$1,335

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$157.5

Record

51%

1086-1046 (2132)

0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8

Invested

$250

Value

$245.31

PnL

-$4.69

Record

56%

70-55 (125)

gt7238CTR

TYLOO

Invested

$150.41

Value

$177.57

PnL

+$27.16

Record

45%

540-656 (1196)

sportteryqqCTR

TYLOO

Invested

$128

Value

$125.09

PnL

-$2.91

Record

40%

403-604 (1007)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

TYLOO

Invested

$184.47

Value

$120.19

PnL

-$64.28

Record

53%

106-93 (199)

Basquetipster<$100

Invested

$38.37

Value

$45.35

PnL

+$6.98

Record

69%

1609-728 (2337)

0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR<$100

TYLOO

Invested

$23.7

Value

$23.58

PnL

-$0.12

Record

46%

824-978 (1802)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

TYLOO

Invested

$13.67

Value

$12.49

PnL

-$1.18

Record

49%

17082-17463 (34545)

Research grade

Neutral9z at 92%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on 9z. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharp9z 100% · 1

Aligned

ctr9z 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-picked9z 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 10009z 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 9z wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.9%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.