Counter-Strike: 9z vs TYLOO (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold 9z (75%) · 9z at 73¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
9z
4
9z 75%
$5.2K
$5.27
72.9¢ → 73¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
Neutral9z at 73%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR TrippleEX | 9zavg 73¢ | $4.3K | $4.3K | -$0 | 57% 271-201 (472) |
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR | TYLOOavg 27¢ | $585.96 | $585.96 | +$0 | 53% 105-93 (198) |
HU humbleboy | 9zavg 71¢ | $262.31 | $267.85 | +$5.54 | 54% 412-347 (759) |
 relativesignificance<$100 | 9zavg 74¢ | $19.88 | $19.62 | -$0.27 | 59% 70-49 (119) |
Invested
$4,337.07
Value
$4.3K
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
271-201 (472)
Invested
$585.96
Value
$585.96
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
105-93 (198)
Invested
$262.31
Value
$267.85
PnL
+$5.54
Record
54%
412-347 (759)
relativesignificance<$100Invested
$19.88
Value
$19.62
PnL
-$0.27
Record
59%
70-49 (119)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.