Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold England, while the market favors Pakistan (66%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

England and Sri Lanka Tour of Pakistan ODIs: Pakistan vs England

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold England (40%) · England at 35¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 1

Pakistan66¢England34¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

England

Consensus Traders

England 40%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.6K

Combined PnL

$291.12

Smart Money Entry

38.3¢ → 34.5¢

-10% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralEngland at 35%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

England

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Pakistan 66%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pakistan66%

England35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

England4 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares15,333

Combined PnL+$255.93

Pakistan6 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,417

Combined PnL+$35.19

England — 40%Pakistan — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI midwicket72ARB<$100	Pakistanavg 62.3¢	$14.7K	$13.6K	$-1.2K	58% 114-82 (196)
└ Pakistan leg	Pakistanavg 62.3¢	$9.8K	$10.3K	+$497.42
└ England leg	Englandavg 52.1¢	$4.9K	$3.3K	$-1.7K
IR IrfanyousufCTR	Englandavg 36¢	$6.8K	$4.7K	+$233.67	49% 37-38 (75)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Pakistanavg 70¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$10	51% 960-920 (1880)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Englandavg 57.2¢	$926.58	$943.03	+$21.72	59% 3045-2103 (5148)
OM omnibus-076daa	Pakistanavg 68¢	$329.6	$336.87	+$7.27	59% 13747-9558 (23305)
tradecraft	Pakistanavg 64.4¢	$311.26	$331.26	+$20	52% 5490-5090 (10580)
PU purplegatto	Pakistanavg 41.8¢	$183.12	$181.77	-$1.35	51% 4179-4014 (8193)
MI mishipolisARB<$100	Pakistanavg 61¢	$106	$100	-$6	47% 2643-2998 (5641)
└ Pakistan leg	Pakistanavg 61¢	$61	$61.5	+$0.5
└ England leg	Englandavg 45¢	$45	$38.5	-$6.5
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Englandavg 50¢	$10	$10.3	+$0.3	71% 17316-6997 (24313)
JI jiafanCTR<$100	Englandavg 57¢	$9.12	$9.36	+$0.24	61% 1297-825 (2122)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Pakistanavg 69¢	$3.52	$3.24	-$0.28	68% 3508-1679 (5187)
HRTrading<$100	Pakistanavg 49¢	$2.94	$2.49	-$0.45	58% 1363-997 (2360)

midwicket72ARB<$100

Pakistan

Invested

$14,742.14

Value

$13.6K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

58%

114-82 (196)

Both legs:

Pakistan$9,826.6362.3¢+$497.42

England$4,915.5152.1¢$-1.7K

IrfanyousufCTR

England

Invested

$6,755.61

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$233.67

Record

49%

37-38 (75)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Pakistan

Invested

$1,400

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$10

Record

51%

960-920 (1880)

GamblingAddict12345CTR

England

Invested

$926.58

Value

$943.03

PnL

+$21.72

Record

59%

3045-2103 (5148)

omnibus-076daa

Pakistan

Invested

$329.6

Value

$336.87

PnL

+$7.27

Record

59%

13747-9558 (23305)

tradecraft

Pakistan

Invested

$311.26

Value

$331.26

PnL

+$20

Record

52%

5490-5090 (10580)

purplegatto

Pakistan

Invested

$183.12

Value

$181.77

PnL

-$1.35

Record

51%

4179-4014 (8193)

mishipolisARB<$100

Pakistan

Invested

$106

Value

$100

PnL

-$6

Record

47%

2643-2998 (5641)

Both legs:

Invested

$10

Value

$10.3

PnL

+$0.3

Record

71%

17316-6997 (24313)

jiafanCTR<$100

England

Invested

$9.12

Value

$9.36

PnL

+$0.24

Record

61%

1297-825 (2122)

SunlineTicker<$100

Pakistan

Invested

$3.52

Value

$3.24

PnL

-$0.28

Record

68%

3508-1679 (5187)

HRTrading<$100

Pakistan

Invested

$2.94

Value

$2.49

PnL

-$0.45

Record

58%

1363-997 (2360)

Research grade

NeutralEngland at 35%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

England

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Pakistan 66%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that England wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.6%

34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$172.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

272.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.