India Tour of New Zealand T20s: New Zealand vs India
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold India (100%) · India at 54¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
India
2
India 100%
$1.2K
$1.69
55¢ → 54.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralIndia at 54%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO Notradecopy | Indiaavg 55¢ | $680.35 | $680.35 | +$6.19 | 49% 3581-3675 (7256) |
MI midwicket72 | Indiaavg 55¢ | $494.53 | $490.04 | -$4.49 | 56% 174-139 (313) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.