ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C: Nigeria vs Uganda
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Uganda (80%) · Uganda at 89¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Uganda
5
Uganda 80%
1 arb excluded
$2.3K
-$0.69
83.1¢ → 88.9¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUganda at 89%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846ARB<$100 | Ugandaavg 76.9¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | -$32.52 | 63% 22606-13350 (35956) |
| └ Uganda leg | Ugandaavg 76.9¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$109.8 | |
| └ Nigeria leg | Nigeriaavg 24.2¢ | $391.05 | $468.34 | +$77.29 | |
OM omnibus-076daa | Ugandaavg 82.2¢ | $300.45 | $324.96 | +$24.5 | 59% 13939-9669 (23608) |
BE berlinskies<$100 | Ugandaavg 88¢ | $100 | $80.68 | -$19.32 | 57% 4837-3604 (8441) |
MI mishipolis | Ugandaavg 71.9¢ | $115.08 | $40.27 | -$4.95 | 47% 2697-3064 (5761) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Ugandaavg 88.9¢ | $20 | $19.24 | -$0.76 | 71% 17644-7156 (24800) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Nigeriaavg 33¢ | $1.32 | $1.16 | -$0.16 | 57% 1491-1104 (2595) |
Invested
$1,827.43
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$32.52
Record
63%
22606-13350 (35956)
Both legs:
Invested
$300.45
Value
$324.96
PnL
+$24.5
Record
59%
13939-9669 (23608)
Invested
$100
Value
$80.68
PnL
-$19.32
Record
57%
4837-3604 (8441)
Invested
$115.08
Value
$40.27
PnL
-$4.95
Record
47%
2697-3064 (5761)
Invested
$20
Value
$19.24
PnL
-$0.76
Record
71%
17644-7156 (24800)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.32
Value
$1.16
PnL
-$0.16
Record
57%
1491-1104 (2595)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.