ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C: Mozambique vs Zambia
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Mozambique (67%) · Mozambique at 50¢ · $355 held · ends Nov 1
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Neutral
Mozambique
3
Mozambique 67%
$355.27
$132.88
30.7¢ → 50¢
+63% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralMozambique at 50%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 tradecraft | Mozambiqueavg 32.2¢ | $162.04 | $251.27 | +$89.23 | 52% 5500-5106 (10606) |
MI mishipolis<$100 | Mozambiqueavg 26.5¢ | $47.75 | $90 | +$42.25 | 47% 2666-3026 (5692) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542<$100 | Zambiaavg 81¢ | $12.6 | $14 | +$1.4 | 47% 1966-2195 (4161) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.